Research.LeutholdGroup

As we’ve noted, none of the major indexes has kept pace with the typical path traced out during past cyclical upswings. It has since occurred to us that this nearly ten-month stock rally is being compared to an unrealistically high standard: The current advance doesn’t have the advantages enjoyed by bulls that launched out of recessionary conditions.

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While it’s possible that Monday’s S&P 500 low of 2,386 will represent an important trading low, we believe it is too early to expect the market to form a major bear market low.

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