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Market Cycles

Aug 15 2019

Can Equity Investors Eat Their Cake And Have It Too?

  • Aug 15, 2019

Investor sentiment seems to be unusually conflicted these days. There are worries aplenty, including numerous political skirmishes of consequence around the world, a slowing global economy, and lofty U.S. equity valuations. On the other hand, fiscal stimulus is high for this stage in an economic cycle and the Fed is easing monetary policy, two policy drivers it rarely pays to bet against.

Aug 07 2015

Value, Momentum, And The Stock Market Cycle

  • Aug 7, 2015

Conventional measures of market action, like breadth and industry leadership, point to the formation of a bull market top. Divergences abound.

May 01 2013

Ruminations On The Major Trend Index

  • May 1, 2013

There are many reasons to think the MTI’s cautionary message should be taken seriously.

Dec 04 2005

Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context

  • Dec 4, 2005

Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.

Sep 03 2003

Following The Script?

  • Sep 3, 2003

Yes September is most frequent month to produce declines, but average loss has been only a paltry 1.3%. Also, Septembers following bear market lows (like this year) actually produced strong performance.

Jun 04 2003

Building A Head Of Steam

  • Jun 4, 2003

Based on cyclical bull market recovery from 1973-1974 secular bear market. There is still significant stock market upside from May’s month end price levels.