Research.LeutholdGroup

Most labor market measures continue to weaken, and for investors still heavily invested in stocks, we’d caution against waiting for all labor market figures to deteriorate before scaling back. Equities will likely take a big dive before such conclusive evidence arrives.

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With leading economic measures still trending down, optimists who advocated against fighting the Fed during the free-money era have ditched their own advice. Their focus is now on lagging indicators, like the employment numbers—but that last bastion of strength seems ready to buckle.

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We think the stock market is skating on pre-recessionary thin ice, an endeavor that, admittedly, can be both irresistible and (temporarily) profitable.

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We cringe when we hear the Treasury Secretary or a regional Fed bank president dismiss the possibility of recession on the basis of “low unemployment and strong job gains.” Those measures are as “laggy” as any economic statistics the government publishes.

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As Yogi Berra might have quipped, it’s not just the leading indicators that are lagging… the lagging ones are, too.

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The last few months have served up some of the strongest readings observed during the U.S. economic expansion.

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