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NYSE Advance/Decline

May 06 2022

Not Dot-Com

  • May 6, 2022

Bulls have been quick to assure us that this market “bears” no resemblance to the dot-com bust. We agree—but probably for very different reasons. Among them are the conventional breadth measures, which provided little warning of this year’s January peak. And, the initial decline off January’s top has been much broader than during the first phase of the dot-com bust.

Apr 07 2022

X-Rays And EKGs

  • Apr 7, 2022

In late March, the S&P 500 rallied to within 3.5% of its January high, likely prompting producers at CNBC to put in an order for “S&P 500 5,000” hats. But we think that 4,000 will be undercut before 5,000 is topped, and action in key indexes (with the notable exception of the S&P 500 itself) reinforces our view.

Nov 05 2021

The State Of The “Tape,” Before The Taper

  • Nov 5, 2021

Technical types who have the luxury of avoiding the worsening valuation, inflation, and liquidity backdrop probably view today’s market as a much “safer” one than has existed for many months, now that breadth and leadership cracks have been mostly sealed up. 

Oct 07 2021

The Trend Is A Bit Less Friendly

  • Oct 7, 2021

The MTI’s move to its Negative zone with the October 1st reading was driven by a few trend breakdowns—ones that could well reverse in short order. Recognizing the volatility of these signals (and perhaps having been “conditioned” by the one-way market of the last 18 months), we opted for just a minor asset allocation adjustment.

Aug 06 2021

Testing The Transports

  • Aug 6, 2021

A new market high that is not confirmed by the stocks of companies that “move the goods” is a warning signal. We reviewed the Transports’ action in all years the S&P 500 accomplished a 12-month high during the month of July, like it did this year.

Mar 06 2020

Out Of The Blue?

  • Mar 6, 2020

There have been long-time divergences between blue chips and other market segments signaling that all is not “in gear” beneath the surface—but this cautionary activity never foretells the “timing.” Recently, Small Caps, the Value Line Arithmetic Composite, and Dow Transports staged pathetic bounces off the January 31st “Coronavirus 1.0” low, while the blue chips had strong momentum into mid-February. Normally, such divergences typically last for at least 3-4 months before they become meaningful.

Jan 08 2020

Charts Are In The Eye Of The Beholder

  • Jan 8, 2020

After last year’s 30% S&P 500 gain, many strategists are now suggesting that the real melt-up still lies ahead. We think a melt-up has already occurred, and the bulk of it has been booked.

Sep 07 2019

More Extreme Than 1999?

  • Sep 7, 2019

We noted that the December 2018 stock market low was the second most expensive in history, second only to that of October 1998. Similarities between 2019 market action and the 1998-99 rebound remain eerie. Something isn’t right, and it’s not bullish.

Jul 05 2019

Breadth: Is It Different This Time?

  • Jul 5, 2019

The granddaddy of all technical indicators—the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line—continues to make new highs alongside the S&P 500, suggesting the market should move to even higher (but perhaps narrower) highs well into the fall. As noted a month ago, we increasingly suspect that granddaddy may be telling a lie.

Jun 21 2019

The Market Is On Fire… Unless It’s Ice

  • Jun 21, 2019

Yesterday’s S&P 500 new all-time high triggered a few simple internal studies we’ve used to help shape second-half expectations for the stock market.

 

Jun 14 2019

Deflation And Deception

  • Jun 14, 2019

We think the current economic cycle is more likely to end in a deflationary bust than with a bout of late-cycle “overheating,” and analysts and investors should recognize that such a cycle ending could be especially difficult to detect.

 

May 06 2016

“Four On The Floor”

  • May 6, 2016

Leadership, breadth, and corporate credit all staged intermediate-term breakouts, rising above their respective 40-week moving averages. In this formation, historically, S&P 500 annualized return is +15%.

May 06 2016

Sizing Up The Rally

  • May 6, 2016

While our MTI became bullish in mid-April, we can’t rule out that the rebound from February lows could be an impressive bear market rally. However, this rally sports impressive technical credentials.

Aug 07 2014

Market Internals—Breadth Weakness Troubling But Not Dire

  • Aug 7, 2014

Remember that peaks in market breadth tend to lead peaks in the S&P 500 by at least a few months.

Jun 06 2014

Transports Still Leading - Market Top Not Imminent

  • Jun 6, 2014

While stock market action YTD has not been quite as “uniform,” the hallmarks of an imminent bull market top are simply not present. The bullish portents apply to intermediate term results, however, they cannot rule out any short-term setbacks (which can appear with no tip-off from breadth or leadership measures).