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PPI

Jul 07 2018

Inflation Warning Flags?

  • Jul 7, 2018

After yet another benign figure on wages for June, the idea that inflationary pressures might be a problem for the stock market seems far-fetched.

Jun 15 2018

Full Employment And Rising Prices Aren’t Stock-Friendly

  • Jun 15, 2018

Annual Producer Price Inflation rose to 4.0% in May, a key threshold above which the S&P 500 has historically delivered essentially flat returns. But the fact that this reading occurs against a backdrop of full employment is cause for even more concern. Context is key...

Jan 06 2018

Keep An Eye On “Relative” Inflation

  • Jan 6, 2018

While our Group Selection (GS) framework hasn’t yet warmed up to commodity-oriented industries, our macro work suggests perhaps it should.

Jun 07 2017

Inflation Complacency?

  • Jun 7, 2017

Leading inflation indicators have leveled off so far in 2017 after last year’s huge rebound from the deeply oversold readings produced by the 2014-2015 collapse in commodities.

Mar 07 2017

Lo And Behold, Another RATIO!!

  • Mar 7, 2017

For managers who must remain fully invested in equities (or “paid to play,” as we’ve often called it), the level of inflation might prove a less important consideration than its character.

Mar 07 2017

Could Inflation Threaten The Stock Market?

  • Mar 7, 2017

Over the last 70 years, stocks have made no cumulative progress when Producer Price Inflation runs above 4%. Returns have been average when PPI inflation runs between 2% and 4%—where it is today.

Jul 20 2015

Inflation—Expecting More Drag From Oil

  • Jul 20, 2015

With the recent weakness in oil prices and the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar, we would not be surprised to see weaker headline numbers in the next few months. The expectations of a rate hike might actually end up pushing the rate hike further out. We are now less sanguine about a pick-up in PPI in the rest of the year.

Apr 08 2015

Another Take On The Inflation Debate

  • Apr 8, 2015

While there’s understandable obsession over the likely level of inflation (especially with the year-over-year CPI dipping below zero in the past two months), equity managers with no interest or skill in inflation forecasting might be better served by monitoring the character of inflation—i.e., whether it was led by changes in consumer or producer prices.

Jan 17 2014

Inflation Pressure Anemic

  • Jan 17, 2014

Inflation measures are broadly in line with expectations, and overall inflation pressure is anemic.  We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor in the first half of 2014, and it might increase moderately in the second half.  Inflation on the producers’ level is weak, too and the PPI inflation pipeline doesn’t seem to pose any immediate inflationary threat either.

 

Nov 22 2013

Inflation Lower Still

  • Nov 22, 2013

We maintain our view that inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months.

Oct 08 2013

Inflation Still Going Nowhere In The U.S.

  • Oct 8, 2013

Inflation at both consumers’ and producers’ level is still modest. A drawn out government shutdown and debt ceiling debate will hurt the economy, which could further push out the taper timeline.

Aug 07 2013

10-Year: Taper the Taper—Upside Limited

  • Aug 7, 2013

If interest rates keep going higher from here, we would run the risk of derailing a still-fragile recovery. As long as the Fed tapering uncertainty exists, we expect higher volatility on the 10-year yield to persist in the mean time.

Jan 07 2013

Inflation Slightly Lower Than Expected

  • Jan 7, 2013

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI fell 0.5% from October to November, lower than expected.

Dec 06 2012

No Big Change — Inflation Remains Moderate

  • Dec 6, 2012

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was essentially flat in October, in line with market expectations. 

Oct 04 2012

Inflation Turned Higher In August

  • Oct 4, 2012

The non-seasonally adjusted CPI jumped 0.6% in August, matching the market consensus.

Sep 07 2012

CPI Inflation Dips Lower, But Concerns About Food & Energy Prices Remain

  • Sep 7, 2012

Inflation measures mostly lower than expected in July.

 

Aug 07 2012

Inflation Pressures Trend Lower

  • Aug 7, 2012

Inflation measures mostly matched expectations in June.

 

Jun 06 2012

Near Term Inflation Presures Receding

  • Jun 6, 2012

Most inflation measures matched expectations in April.

 

Feb 05 2012

Reported Inflation Should Be Muted In 2012

  • Feb 5, 2012

For 2012, the reported CPI is expected to slip down to the +2% area (although items like lunches, transportation, parking and food may continue rising at close to a 10% rate).

Feb 05 2012

Falling Commodity Prices Tamping Down Inflation Pressures

  • Feb 5, 2012

Through November, the CPI is now up 3.4% from year ago levels, while the PPI is up 5.7%.

Dec 06 2011

Very Little Price Pressure At Present

  • Dec 6, 2011

It is very difficult to find signs of accelerating inflation in today’s markets.

Nov 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Waning

  • Nov 5, 2011

While our 2011 year end inflation projections are still well above the 2010 year end levels, it seems that both the CPI and PPI may have already peaked for the year.

Sep 04 2011

Six Month Readings Look More Favorable Than Twelve Month Readings

  • Sep 4, 2011

In all of the primary inflation measures monitored in our Inflation Watch publication, the six month rates of change moved lower in July. For the most part, the twelve month readings have continued to rise. This action is likely pointing to diminishing inflation pressures for the months ahead.

Aug 04 2011

Jumped The Gun With Boost To PPI Estimate

  • Aug 4, 2011

The July reports showed that both PPI and CPI edged downward in June from May readings.

Jul 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections

  • Jul 5, 2011

CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.

 

Jun 05 2011

Despite Falling Commodity Prices, Inflation Still Expected To Accelerate In 2011

  • Jun 5, 2011

Latest PPI month/month increase was +1.2%, however the latest report is a measure of inflation from mid March through mid April and does not include the impact of the plunge in commodity prices.

May 04 2011

Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident

  • May 4, 2011

All three PPI measures have their six month rates of  change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.

 

Apr 05 2011

Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident

  • Apr 5, 2011

All three PPI measures have their 6 month rates of  change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.

 

Feb 04 2011

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Feb 4, 2011

By keeping interest rates at extreme lows and printing money, the Fed is trying to reflate, convincing consumers to spend, not save and investors to buy riskier assets.

Jan 05 2011

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Jan 5, 2011

Commodities are on fire, and it’s not just because of the weaker dollar. Commodity prices are signaling significant pass-through inflation pressures building.

Dec 04 2010

Inflation Acceleration In 2011

  • Dec 4, 2010

We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.

 

Nov 04 2010

Inflation Acceleration Likely In 2011

  • Nov 4, 2010

Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation.

Oct 05 2010

Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010

  • Oct 5, 2010

We are maintaining our 2010 CPI estimate of +1.2%. (Core CPI +0.9%.)

Sep 03 2010

Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010

  • Sep 3, 2010

It may feel like a deflationary environment, but the CPI is not likely to end 2010 with a twelve month deflationary reading.

Aug 03 2010

Year End Twelve Month CPI Deflation Reading Unlikely

  • Aug 3, 2010

Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.

Jun 03 2010

CPI Tame For Now, 2011?

  • Jun 3, 2010

Gently rising CPI inflation at present can be best characterized as normal business cycle inflation.

May 04 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010

  • May 4, 2010

The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.

Mar 02 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010

  • Mar 2, 2010

Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010 (+3.2%); Higher PPI Inflation (+6.0%)

Feb 02 2010

Weak Dollar Could Continue To Contribute To Higher Commodity Prices

  • Feb 2, 2010

U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher, like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered. The weak U.S. dollar helped, and recent rally might not last.

 

Jan 04 2010

Leuthold Commodity Diffusion Index Remains Negative

  • Jan 4, 2010

Like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered, U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher.