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Nov 23 2018

Thanksgiving Leftovers

  • Nov 23, 2018

Whatever one’s preferred leftovers from yesterday’s feast, the odds are good you’ll find them more appetizing than the slop served up by global asset markets this year. Stocks have obviously been turkeys, but all the surrounding trimmings that help diversify a portfolio have proven anything but complementary to the main course.

Oct 15 2018

Factors And Sectors: A Curious Entanglement

  • Oct 15, 2018

Portfolio managers who tilt toward Value or Growth stocks have long known that each style carries with it an inherent bias toward some sectors and away from others. Our recent piece, Value Style’s 100-Year Flood, highlighted the significant role that sector weights (overweight Financials and Energy, underweight Technology) played in Value’s decade-long stretch of underperformance.

Oct 05 2018

Research Preview: Sector-Adjusted Factor Returns

  • Oct 5, 2018

This article summarizes our current research into the interaction between factors and sectors. We find that sector weights have a significant influence on some factor results, while the true factor impact is the key driver for others. Watch for our full report coming next week.

Jun 15 2018

Full Employment And Rising Prices Aren’t Stock-Friendly

  • Jun 15, 2018

Annual Producer Price Inflation rose to 4.0% in May, a key threshold above which the S&P 500 has historically delivered essentially flat returns. But the fact that this reading occurs against a backdrop of full employment is cause for even more concern. Context is key...

Jan 06 2018

A Long-Term Take On Sentiment

  • Jan 6, 2018

We impatiently published this study two months ago instead of properly waiting for full-year numbers.

Oct 06 2016

Dependence On Initial Conditions, Valuations And Forward Returns

  • Oct 6, 2016

A client inquiry led us to take a fresh look at the relationship between current valuations and subsequent stock market returns, which is a regular feature in our Benchmarks publication.

Jan 08 2014

Buy The Bridesmaid, Not The One Looking To Rebound

  • Jan 8, 2014

The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

Dec 05 2006

Why It Has Been Tough To Beat The S&P 500 In 2006

  • Dec 5, 2006

This month’s “Of Special Interest” study presents a handful of factors that explain why life for active managers has been much more difficult in 2006.

Jun 05 2001

View From The North Country

  • Jun 5, 2001

Managing Your Mother Lode…Your Serious Money. Ten rules written for a soon to be published book, The Book Of Investing Rules, which contains an anthology of rules from well-known investors and financial professionals.

Apr 05 2000

View From The North Country

  • Apr 5, 2000

Individuals are sincere about investing appropriately, but get virtually no advise about risk. Also, putting the speed and volatility of the internet revolution in perspective.

Jan 07 1998

1997 Dreams And Nightmares...Minimal Metamorphosis

  • Jan 7, 1998

Each January, this publication has presented a look back at the prior year’s best and worst industry groups and institutional stocks.

Apr 05 1997

An Excellent Return Alternative to Stocks...With Much Less Risk

  • Apr 5, 1997

Bonds a good return alternative to stocks. Fed will help put the brakes on the economy while current yields seen to already discount another bump-up in rates.

Nov 05 1995

Worth Noting

  • Nov 5, 1995

Steve's thoughts on borrowing to buy mutual funds, indexing and an eerie post-Halloween graphic.

Sep 05 1994

Valuation Considerations

  • Sep 5, 1994

S&P 500 normalized PE and yield in top (worst) decile of 1926 to date data history. From these valuation levels 12 month total returns average a big fat zero.

Apr 05 1993

View from the North Country

  • Apr 5, 1993

In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.

Jun 04 1990

Stock Market Performance In Historical Perspective

  • Jun 4, 1990

A few months ago John Lillard, President of JMB Institutional Realty, had a great idea for us. One of John's suggestions was that we compile histograms of past stock market performance to help put the recent outstanding stock market performance in better perspective. Yes, some of our best ideas come from clients.

Dec 01 1986

Inflation/Deflation and the Stock Market

  • Dec 1, 1986

Today, many are concerned about the potential negative impact of deflation and the stock market. Our work demonstrates that moderate deflation has typically not been a hostile stock market environment. However, deep deflation (5%-11%) has historically been a bad time for stocks.