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Seasonal Cycle

Apr 07 2023

Yet Another Thing The Fed Has Screwed Up...

  • Apr 7, 2023

In today’s cycle, we’ve not yet observed the usual pre-election “ramp” in M2 growth. That might help explain why the traditionally hyper-bullish, six-month window beginning at the time of mid-term elections has so far been underwhelming.

Sep 08 2022

A Year That Was Cursed From The Start

  • Sep 8, 2022

In January we put it bluntly: “Longer-term time cycles don’t line up for a prosperous 2022.” Not only is it a mid-term election year, but also a Shmita Year. Eight months later, the S&P 500 loss through August has exceeded 10% for only the twelfth time since 1926.

Nov 05 2021

It’s That Time Of Year…

  • Nov 5, 2021

October’s nearly +7% S&P 500 surge was impressive, but came a month early—according to the traditional seasonal cycle—which turned bullish on November 1st, and will remain intact for the next six months.

May 07 2019

Sell *Beta* In May

  • May 7, 2019

The six-month stretch beginning in May generally coincides with a narrow stock market in which non-cyclical and low volatility stocks tend to be the winners. Hence, don’t “sell” in May, but rather, tilt away from beta and away from “breadth.” These seasonal switching strategies have 70% batting averages.

Nov 07 2018

Warning Crack

  • Nov 7, 2018

We wrote in October’s Green Book that “many once reliable seasonal market patterns have been out of sync in recent years.”

May 05 2018

Cycle Collision?

  • May 5, 2018

The coming months form a bearish cross-section of two of the most prominent calendar anomalies: “Sell In May,” and the Presidential Election Cycle (in which the mid-term year is statistically the weakest). Between the two, we’d have to rate the former as more powerful and statistically persistent.

Oct 07 2016

How To Beat The S&P 500 With The S&P 500

  • Oct 7, 2016

While 2016 is shaping up to be one of the most difficult years ever (on a relative basis) for active equity managers, one cannot blame the usual culprit of “narrow” market participation.

Sep 08 2016

EM: The Case For Waiting...

  • Sep 8, 2016

We’ve mentioned that concerns over potential seasonal weakness in September and October seem pronounced this year, perhaps because the year has so far turned out a pleasant surprise following its horrendous start.

May 06 2016

Sell In May: Statistical Update

  • May 6, 2016

If this year’s interest in the “Sell In May” phenomenon is any indication, there remains plenty of skepticism surrounding the market’s recent rebound. The good news is that the “Sell In May” play has been weakest during presidential election years.

Aug 07 2014

The Worst Of The “Window” Is Upon Us

  • Aug 7, 2014

Three months ago, our “Of Special Interest” section reviewed the historically pronounced effect of the well-known “Sell In May” phenomenon during mid-term years of the presidential election cycle.

May 07 2014

Two Market Anomalies Intact: A Quantitative Review

  • May 7, 2014

We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.

May 04 2012

"Sell In May"...Without Actually Selling

  • May 4, 2012

A look at how to “Sell in May” without actually selling.


Mar 06 2012

Small Cap Stocks: Hard To Make The Numbers Work…

  • Mar 6, 2012

Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.


May 04 2011

Selling In May: A Market Maxim That Won’t Go Away!

  • May 4, 2011

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.


Dec 05 2009

Good News Is Here… Now What?

  • Dec 5, 2009

Climbing the bull market stairs. Our initial upside price target for the S&P 500 is 1300 to 1350. This is based on normalized P/E ratios moving to prior bull market average peak levels, as well as on past market peaks.


Nov 05 2008

October Panics: Plenty Of Facts, But No Explanations

  • Nov 5, 2008

Mark Twain observed more than a century ago that October represented a “peculiarly dangerous” month to speculate in stocks—with the other dangerous times including the remaining 11 months on the calendar.

Oct 05 2008

That Time Of Year For Tech??

  • Oct 5, 2008

We have found that technology has the strongest seasonal tendency of any sector during the market’s “bullish” seasonal period of November through April.


Aug 05 2008

Yearning For Those Summer Doldrums...

  • Aug 5, 2008

In the past, Wall Street activity slowed in August as professionals headed for the beach. However, the “Hyper-connected Era” has changed all that, as evidenced by higher market volatility in recent years during July and August.


Jun 03 2008

Major Trend Goes Positive....No Need To "Sell In May"

  • Jun 3, 2008

The statistical tendencies of seasonal patterns just haven’t proved persistent (or logical) enough for us to build them into our Major Trend Index. Can it be a bear market if the major indices do not decline more than 20%? Putting a nail in the coffin of the decoupling theorists.

May 05 2007

View From The North Country

  • May 5, 2007

Steve Leuthold discusses the rationale for using “normalized” earnings versus 12-month earnings and how it now makes little sense to sell in May and go away…..unless you need a long vacation.

May 05 2007

Sell In May: Reformulated For The Fully-Invested

  • May 5, 2007

While the “Sell in May” market phenomenon has become part of Wall Street lore, the sector implications of this seasonal pattern are less well-known.

Aug 05 2006

View From The North Country

  • Aug 5, 2006

Everybody sure hates the Homebuilders. However, contrarians should take note of this month’s analysis of earnings prospects, insider selling/buying, and the outlook for future housing starts. Now is not the time to be bottom fishing here. Nor is it time to be buying oil stocks.

Feb 05 2005

Is January Performance Predictive?

  • Feb 5, 2005

A look at the January barometer, indicates there is not much evidence that a weak January market portends weak performance in the remainder of the year.

Dec 05 2004

January Effect: Now Tends To Arrive In December

  • Dec 5, 2004

The January effect still lives… just comes a month earlier in December.

Sep 03 2003

Following The Script?

  • Sep 3, 2003

Yes September is most frequent month to produce declines, but average loss has been only a paltry 1.3%. Also, Septembers following bear market lows (like this year) actually produced strong performance.

Jul 04 2003

“Sell In May And Go Away”

  • Jul 4, 2003

It looks like a strong first half can still lead to a good second half, unless the first half was really good.

Oct 05 1993

Playing the Bounce

  • Oct 5, 1993

It's that time of year again. The Leuthold Group is embarking on its annual "Playing the Bounce" bottom fishing expedition.

Aug 05 1991

Worth Noting

  • Aug 5, 1991

Tony Tabell (Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc.) often has interesting statistical studies in his weekly market letter. By Tony’s calculations, August historically has been the second best month of the year for the stock market.