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Sell in May

May 06 2022

Cycles: Is The Worst Yet To Come?

  • May 6, 2022

Does the market’s poor YTD performance prior to the six-month “Sell in May” combined with the Presidential Election Cycle help “inoculate” it against a typical mid-year, mid-term swoon? Yes, there’s some evidence to support that view—especially with Small Caps.

Jul 23 2021

It’s Not “Whether” You Sold In May, It’s “What”

  • Jul 23, 2021

Those who heeded the old advice to “Sell In May” have missed out on an additional 5% gain (and counting) so far in 2021. However, the best way to have played this seasonal anomaly over the years was not to have “sold-out,” but rather to have “reduced the beta” of one’s equity holdings versus cutting equity exposure outright. That strategy has paid-off handsomely the last three months, even as this “Nothin’ Matters And What If It Did” stock-market powers higher.

May 07 2019

Sell *Beta* In May

  • May 7, 2019

The six-month stretch beginning in May generally coincides with a narrow stock market in which non-cyclical and low volatility stocks tend to be the winners. Hence, don’t “sell” in May, but rather, tilt away from beta and away from “breadth.” These seasonal switching strategies have 70% batting averages.

May 06 2016

Sell In May: Statistical Update

  • May 6, 2016

If this year’s interest in the “Sell In May” phenomenon is any indication, there remains plenty of skepticism surrounding the market’s recent rebound. The good news is that the “Sell In May” play has been weakest during presidential election years.

May 01 2013

Cashing In Some Chips

  • May 1, 2013

I’m sure I’m not the only one who’s grown weary of the media’s “Sell In May” obsession in the last several weeks. In my case, I felt this old piece of stock market wisdom would be late by at least two weeks here in 2013. (But, as of early May, I was wrong.)

May 01 2013

What To Sell, If Selling In May

  • May 1, 2013

Those inclined to sell in May should sell Small Caps. If you don’t have Small Caps, sell Cyclicals, at least for the next six months.