Research.LeutholdGroup

Analyzing quarterly financial results and developing insights about upcoming periods is always difficult, but the first quarter of 2018 was unusually complicated.

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Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Does the historically high level of cash being returned to shareholders crowd out the use of cash elsewhere? One wide-spread concern is that by shelling out cash through dividends and share buybacks, companies are spending less on capital expenditures. Is that a real concern?

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Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Counting dividend payouts and outstanding share repurchases, the amount of cash returned back to investors crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in January 2016 (based on trailing twelve-months’ total for the largest 500 companies, Chart 1).

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Share repurchase activity among U.S. corporations is garnering a lot of negative attention as aggregate dollars spent on share buybacks are nearing the all-time highs last seen leading up to the financial crisis. We take a closer look at the recent activity to see if we are in for a repeat.

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Share repurchases have been a major driver in the extension of the bull market, but this month’s “Of Special Interest” outlines several factors which are likely to contribute to a deceleration in corporate repurchase activity over the next several quarters.

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While stock is being repurchased through the front door, additional shares are going out the back door for stock options, incentive compensation, and acquisitions.

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T-bonds are now clearly in the lead in the 1995 Performance Derby. Do dividend yields matter? Polling the pros in Baltimore and Boston.

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“Polling the pros” in April, adjusting stock market dividend yields for “buybacks”, mutual fund flows, looking beneath the Finished Goods PPI, and the possibility of rising inflation and interest rates.

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