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Jul 08 2021

2020 Post-Mortem

  • Jul 8, 2021

This summer marks the first anniversary, not of the COVID-19 stock-market low, itself, but of the much belated “confirmation” of that low.

May 05 2018

A “Busted” Bond BUY Signal

  • May 5, 2018

Last October our VLT algorithm recorded a bond BUY signal—one that we said, at the time, conflicted with our outlook.

Feb 07 2014

Risk Aversion Index Turns Higher, New “Higher Risk” Signal

  • Feb 7, 2014

We are turning defensive within fixed income and recommend moving up the quality scale.

Jan 08 2014
Dec 06 2013

Risk Aversion Index Edges Lower, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal

  • Dec 6, 2013

We are in the seasonally favorable part of the year and we continue favoring high-grade credits within fixed income.

Nov 07 2013

Risk Aversion Index Falls Further, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal

  • Nov 7, 2013

We seem to be in a “Goldilocks” period, where economic numbers are not bad enough to re-ignite recession fears but are just weak enough to push the taper farther off.

Sep 10 2013

RAI Falls, But Stays On “Higher Risk” Signal—Remain Cautious

  • Sep 10, 2013

The RAI fell in August and stayed on a “High Risk” signal. We remain cautious and recommend higher quality within fixed income.

Aug 07 2013

RAI Fell, But Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal—Remain Cautious

  • Aug 7, 2013

The RAI fell in July and stayed on a “High Risk” signal. We remain cautious and recommend higher quality within fixed income.

Dec 04 2010

Deciphering The Real Message In The Employment Figures

  • Dec 4, 2010

It’s a big mistake to react to the headline reports of employment, and an even bigger mistake to make investment decisions based on them.

May 04 2009

The Rally Is For Real (And For Earl)

  • May 4, 2009

Despite the recent rally, the best two month move since 1933, investors migrating back to bearish camp. This is the best defined “wall of worry” we have seen in over a decade, and one that will provide more fuel for what we believe is a cyclical bull market.


Jul 04 2006

The VIX: Another View On Buy Signals

  • Jul 4, 2006

There does appear to be some validity to using relative highs on the VIX as short term Buy indicators.

Nov 03 1984

Sorry About That…

  • Nov 3, 1984

Several clients have requested information as to the components of the Early Warning Index. We have no secrets....well, not very many, so here are the tools we use to help in identifying intermediate stock market tops.