Research.LeutholdGroup

The dot-com bust was so long ago, most are likely unaware just how catastrophic the long-term Tech-stock returns are when measured back to March 2000. Technology has been the third-worst sector performer on a cumulative basis through May 2022; its +5.2% return has barely beaten 10-year Treasuries.

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Bulls have been quick to assure us that this market “bears” no resemblance to the dot-com bust. We agree—but probably for very different reasons. Among them are the conventional breadth measures, which provided little warning of this year’s January peak. And, the initial decline off January’s top has been much broader than during the first phase of the dot-com bust.

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