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Apr 06 2023

The MOVE Is Now A Better Risk Gauge

  • Apr 6, 2023

The MOVE index, a volatility gauge for the bond market, has become a far better risk barometer—and it surged to a new cycle high in March.

Feb 05 2021

Will The Populist Game Stop?

  • Feb 5, 2021

We look at the recent short squeeze and examine how these populist movements affect the market performance in populist vs. establishment countries, and dig deeper into the regional versus sector effect.

Mar 07 2018

Leverage Factor: A Boost For High Quality Stocks?

  • Mar 7, 2018

A review of Quality factors, as well as the lower valuations of High Quality stocks, supports the current High Quality cycle amid rising market volatility. The Leverage factor may provide particularly strong backing for High Quality stocks.

Mar 07 2018

U.S. Rates: Looking For A Dip

  • Mar 7, 2018

The U.S. 10-year ended the month 15 bps higher but non-U.S. bonds fared much better with bond yields in Europe and Japan 4-5 bps lower.

Oct 05 2017

The Latest Sure Thing

  • Oct 5, 2017

A fascinating aspect of long-running bull markets is the emergence of money-spinning strategies that come to be seen as “sure things.”

Sep 08 2017

Someday, Fear Won’t Be Bullish

  • Sep 8, 2017

Does this year’s incredibly low stock market volatility mean the end is near? History is inconclusive.

Jun 06 2014

The Volatility “Sweet Spot”

  • Jun 6, 2014

Daily stock market volatility has levitated at levels a bit higher than the VIX—in a zone that has historically been “optimal” for short-term performance.

Jun 06 2012

New Higher Risk Signal Generated But Optimistically Cautious

  • Jun 6, 2012

This new “Higher Risk” signal closed out the previous “Lower Risk” signal generated last December, and this measure is telling us it’s time to play a little defense.


Jul 06 2010

Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics

  • Jul 6, 2010

We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.


Jun 03 2009

All In

  • Jun 3, 2009

VLT Momentum measures shifted to buy signals based on May 29th market close. These are low risk signals, which by definition are confirmation of longer term sustainable bull market moves.

Mar 04 2009

Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure

  • Mar 4, 2009

The “Fail-Safe” was triggered by the poor market action at the end of February, and we are moving towards a 50% net equity exposure. Caution seems prudent despite the Major Trend Index remaining in positive territory.

Sep 03 2008

We're Bullish (And Hoping For “Small” Gains)

  • Sep 3, 2008

Improving cyclical leadership could be signaling that the bear market is in its final stages. In 10 of the 12 past bear markets, cyclical stocks turned up prior to the conclusion of the bear.


Sep 05 2007

Getting A Fix On The VIX

  • Sep 5, 2007

August was an incredibly volatile month, and a month which saw the VIX Index explode to the highest level since 2003.

Jul 04 2006

The VIX: Another View On Buy Signals

  • Jul 4, 2006

There does appear to be some validity to using relative highs on the VIX as short term Buy indicators.

Jun 05 2006

The VIX: Volatility Increasing But Still Far From A Buy Signal

  • Jun 5, 2006

During May, the 10 day weighted VIX rose from a level of 11.7 to a peak of 16.7, prompting some to wonder if this work was signaling a buy signal. In fact, the VIX is now at the highest level since mid 2004, but this is still far from a buy signal.

May 04 2005

What To Make Of The VIX?

  • May 4, 2005

VIX was a hot topic in April, as investors saw the increased volatility as a sign the market was poised to rally. Our long term studies of the VIX, results in us cautioning investors about reading too much into the recent move in this volatility index.

Nov 03 2004

Market Sentiment: Currently A Mixed Bag

  • Nov 3, 2004

An in depth discussion of market sentiment...At present, it is a real mixed bag, there is no clear cut consensus.

Oct 05 2003

Revisiting The VIX

  • Oct 5, 2003

While we still believe there are problems with the VIX as a sell signal, our study did reveal some validity in the 1997 to date period.

Sep 03 2003

Dissecting The VIX Index

  • Sep 3, 2003

VIX Index not effective as a sell signal, but very good on buy side. Ignore talk of current low VIX reading foreshadowing a market decline.