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VLT Signals

Nov 07 2019

VLT Complicates The Market Puzzle

  • Nov 7, 2019

At October’s close, a long-term BUY signal was triggered on the Russell 2000. The fact that some market segments are triggering “oversold BUYS” when blue chips are at record highs speaks volumes about the internal disparities that have developed during the last few years. The Russell BUY signal is not inconsistent with our belief that the action since the January 2018 peak remains part of a lengthy cyclical topping process.

Nov 01 2019

The Market Puzzle Gets Even More Complicated

  • Nov 1, 2019

At last night’s close, the Russell 2000 generated a “low-risk” BUY signal on our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm, a possibility we’d alluded to in the September and October Green Books.

Oct 05 2019

Small Cap VLT BUY: Not Quite...

  • Oct 5, 2019

Small Caps came tantalizingly close to activating a major VLT BUY signal in September, with the Russell 2000 closing less than a half percent below the trigger level. A new bull signal from this indicator wouldn’t “fit” into our market and economic narrative, but we won’t sweep it under the rug if it occurs.

Sep 07 2019

Small Caps: “What If?”

  • Sep 7, 2019

The Russell 2000 is the most important major index on the cusp of a new BUY signal. Our best guess is that Small Caps will still trend lower for now, creating a buying opportunity in the months ahead.

Jun 07 2019

Portraits Of An Out-Of-Sync Market

  • Jun 7, 2019

We suggested many years ago that the final top to this historic bull market would be a long and complicated process rather than a clean and singular event.

May 03 2019

Adding Some Emerging Markets On A “Rent-to-Own” Basis

  • May 3, 2019

Emerging Market equities have been modest underperformers during the current rally, but they’ve marshaled enough strength to trigger a new low-risk BUY signal on our VLT Momentum algorithm at the end of April.

Apr 05 2019

VLT & Implications For Small Caps

  • Apr 5, 2019

For much of this decade, we had an allocation preference for Large Caps over Small Caps because of the considerable P/E premium commanded by the latter.

Apr 05 2019

Bottom-Spotting In Foreign Stocks

  • Apr 5, 2019

The tale of two markets has existed for years, but now it’s getting ridiculous.

Dec 07 2018

VLT = Very Lousy Timing?

  • Dec 7, 2018

In the spirit of keeping an open mind, three months ago we observed that our S&P 500 VLT Momentum measure had triggered a “moderate-risk” BUY signal with its August reading.

Aug 05 2016

More Upside For Small Caps?

  • Aug 5, 2016

There was a major cyclical BUY signal (VLT Momentum) for the S&P 500 in late-May, and as of July’s close, that bullish development was reinforced by a new VLT BUY signal on the Russell 2000.

Jun 07 2016

VLT Says “BUY”

  • Jun 7, 2016

Breadth underlying the 4-month upswing has been stronger than that observed during any other rally leg since 2013. Despite just a 14% correction in the S&P 500 from its peak, a new VLT “BUY” signal was triggered. Failed signals are relatively rare, the last one occurred in December 2001.

Apr 07 2016

A Turn In Leadership?

  • Apr 7, 2016

Last month we wrote that a big March gain would trigger a Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum BUY signal on the S&P 500 (Chart). The month’s 6.8% S&P 500 gain wasn’t quite enough to do the trick, but we’re intrigued that VLT did issue BUY signals for three of the market’s cyclical sectors, including Energy, Materials, and Industrials.

Nov 06 2015

VLT Flashes A BUY On Oil

  • Nov 6, 2015

As expected, our VLT Momentum algorithm triggered a “low-risk” cyclical buy signal on crude oil in late October, only the 11th buy signal in the past 30 years. This algorithm was originally designed to identify low-risk entry points into the stock market, but we’ve found it useful with other assets as well.