The relative valuation across major themes can be highly informative of investor sentiment and economic expectations. July’s Green Book observation of the unusually high valuations of cyclicals vs. defensives is suggestive, indicating a positive outlook on the business cycle and hinting at a risk-on mentality. Periods when the reverse is true would reflect concerns of an economic slowdown and a desire to play it safe when it comes to equity risk exposure. Whether one is a portfolio manager looking to play the momentum in cyclicals or a relative value opportunity in defensives, it is worthwhile to keep an eye on this telling relationship.
Jul
23
2025
Expensive Cyclicals Or Cheap Defensives?
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