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Asset Allocation

Jan 08 2019

“De-Worsification” Ruled In 2018!

  • Jan 8, 2019

The market difficulties of 2018 were hardly limited to stocks. Commodities, in fact, were the worst performer among the seven major asset classes.

Nov 15 2018

Asset Allocation: As Bad As It Gets

  • Nov 15, 2018

Asset Allocation in 2018 is about as bad as it gets. No major asset class has done well.

Jan 06 2018

Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?

  • Jan 6, 2018

We are contrarians at heart, but learned quickly that successful contrarian investing is far more complicated than simply buying assets that are down the most in price.

Jan 07 2017

Bridesmaid Track Record

  • Jan 7, 2017

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bonds—last year’s Bridesmaid holding—eked out a 1% gain in 2016, a disappointing result but one that preserved a streak of positive annual returns dating back to 2001 (Table 2).

Jan 08 2016

Asset Allocation: No Upside In 2015

  • Jan 8, 2016

Hedge funds have shuttered by the dozen in the past few weeks, with the worst carnage among those focused on Emerging Markets and commodities. But the problem is broader.

Jan 08 2016

Asset Allocation: Buy Weakness Or Strength?

  • Jan 8, 2016

Models can prove helpful in overriding an investor’s natural (and frequently costly) impulses. But we’ve come to believe that our long experience in model building and implementation has succeeded not only in overriding these impulses but in actually modifying them.

Jan 08 2016

Bridesmaid Asset Strategy

  • Jan 8, 2016

Liquidity “consuming” strategies like price momentum are generally considered to be more volatile than liquidity “providing” approaches like value investing.

May 07 2015

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios

  • May 7, 2015

Major Trend Index strengthened in April; net equity exposure increased to 61%

Jan 08 2015

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios

  • Jan 8, 2015

Major Trend Index Neutral: Equity Exposure Remains 52-53%

Jan 08 2015

Asset Allocation & Sector Strategy: Follow The Trend, Or Fade It?

  • Jan 8, 2015

We are nothing if not contrarians, but have also highlighted the hazards of “knee-jerk” contrarianism—in which investors are instinctively drawn to the asset, sector, or stock that is down the most in price in the recent past.

Dec 05 2014

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios

  • Dec 5, 2014

We increased equity exposure back above 50% in mid-November as a result of the MTI returning to Neutral.

Nov 07 2014

“Fully-Invested Bears” Are The Year’s Big Winners

  • Nov 7, 2014

With the S&P 500 at a double digit gain YTD, one would expect those being rewarded are aggressively positioned. We present two hypothetical portfolios and find the hyper-conservative one has nearly doubled the S&P 500 gain.

Oct 07 2014

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios

  • Oct 7, 2014

Major Trend Index turned negative and as of early October, we are now targeting 40% net equity exposure.

Sep 08 2014

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios Competitive With Benchmarks Despite Maintaining Reduced Equity Exposure

  • Sep 8, 2014

Net equity target is 55%; waiting for clearer signal from our Major Trend Index (currently rated Neutral).

Jul 07 2014

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios’ Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 65-66%

  • Jul 7, 2014

Both Portfolios lagged all-equity benchmarks in June; but still ahead YTD.

Jun 05 2014

Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios’ Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 65%

  • Jun 5, 2014

Both Portfolios matched their all-equity benchmarks in May, and are outperforming YTD.

Apr 08 2014

Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Unchanged In April

  • Apr 8, 2014

The Major Trend Index remains positive, and our portfolios continue outpacing the market. Net exposure is 65% in both the Core and Global portfolios.

Mar 07 2014

Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Increased Slightly In February

  • Mar 7, 2014

The Major Trend Index remains positive, and net exposure is 65% in the Core and 64% in Global.

Feb 06 2014

Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Maintained In January

  • Feb 6, 2014

The Major Trend Index remains positive and net exposure is 63% in the Core and 62% in Global.

Jan 08 2014

Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Maintained In December

  • Jan 8, 2014

The Major Trend Index remains positive and net exposure in both portfolios is 64%. For all of 2013, our average net equity exposure was 60% in each portfolio.

Jan 08 2014

Buy The Bridesmaid, Not The One Looking To Rebound

  • Jan 8, 2014

The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

Dec 06 2013

Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Raised Slightly As Hedge Reduced

  • Dec 6, 2013

The Major Trend Index remains positive and, as expected, our temporary ETF hedge was lifted. Our net exposure in both portfolios is now 64%-65%.

Nov 07 2013

Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Trimmed Slightly To 60%

  • Nov 7, 2013

The Major Trend Index remains positive, but we reduced our target exposure from 62% to 60% using a short ETF as we believe this position will be temporary in nature.

Feb 05 2012

Looking Deeper Into The Tails Of Distribution

  • Feb 5, 2012

Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.

Jan 05 2012

Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?

  • Jan 5, 2012

The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.

Jan 04 2010

Asset Allocation: Still Heavy In Equities

  • Jan 4, 2010

Initial outlook for 2010 is to see the S&P 500 rise to 1300 or 1350 during the first half of the year but then give up those gains in the second half of the year. We are counting on the Major Trend Index to help navigate the choppy market.

 

Mar 05 2008

Not As Bad As January...

  • Mar 5, 2008

First, let us be thankful February 29th only occurs every four years. No, we haven’t done a historical performance analysis of past leap year extra days, but you can be certain somebody now has. Whatever, it was a bad end to February 2008.

Feb 05 2006

Initiated A Position In Japanese Equities

  • Feb 5, 2006

Used market weakness in Tokyo to begin building position in Japanese equities.

Dec 04 2005

Debunking One Myth Of The Buy And Hold Rationale

  • Dec 4, 2005

Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.

Jan 07 1998

A Look In The Rearview Mirror

  • Jan 7, 1998

What we did well and not so well...

Oct 05 1997

View From the North Country

  • Oct 5, 1997

Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.

Sep 05 1996

View from the North Country

  • Sep 5, 1996

Market timing: key to long term timing success is discipline. Politics 1996: the election outcome that minimizes prospects of decisive political action may provide the best market environment.

Apr 05 1995

In Focus: Paid To Play

  • Apr 5, 1995

The Leuthold Group’s new direction in stock sector selection. A disciplined, unemotional, quantitative approach to today’s “real world” stock market group selection.

Jan 04 1993

Inside The Stock Market

  • Jan 4, 1993

On December 21, the Major Trend Index moved into "neutral" territory.

Jan 04 1993

A Look In The Rearview Mirror

  • Jan 4, 1993

Self examination can be good for the soul, so each January time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing appearing in our publication.

Jan 05 1992

The Year That Was

  • Jan 5, 1992

1991 began on a grim note.

Jan 05 1992

A Look In The Rearview Mirror

  • Jan 5, 1992

Self examination can be good for the soul, so each year time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including the good...and the bad.

Jan 07 1991

A Look In The Rearview Mirror

  • Jan 7, 1991

Self examination can be good for the soul, so each year time is taken to look back over the preceding year or so, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing in this publication. Including the good....and the bad.

Jan 07 1990

Defensive Posture Maintained

  • Jan 7, 1990

It continues to appear the stock market is forming a major cyclical bull market top. The Major Trend Index did improve some in December but remains convincingly negative with a reading of +1461 and -2000.

Jan 07 1989

All Our Systems Are Still "Go"

  • Jan 7, 1989

A month ago this section lead off with the headline "All Systems Are Go".