Business Cycle
What “Causes” Inflation To Decline?
Last year’s consensus view that inflation would prove “transitory” missed the mark. There’s no reason for shame; inflation forecasting hadn’t been a required investment skill for the previous 30 years.
The Inflation Surge In Context
Inflation is already “too high” for the current cyclical setting, and the level of inflation that equity investors are willing to tolerate will drop further as the economy recovers.
Stocks And GDP
Economists argue the best thing the stock market has going for it is the continuation of the U.S. economic expansion. Maybe.
More Yield Curve Musings
The U.S. yield curve inversion has lasted long enough that even a few economic optimists now concede it will ultimately prove significant.
Recession Evidence: How Much Is Enough?
Over a 12-month horizon, we now believe a U.S. recession is very likely, but aren’t confident enough to make the call when the forecast window is cut in half. Second-half stock returns could be decent if the business-cycle peak is still a year away. Then again, there’s peril in waiting for “too much” confirmation of recession.
Mid-Year Mea Culpa
The S&P 500 has rallied 9.2% in the 22 trading days since its June 3rd low, but the move hasn’t (yet) been enough to lift the Major Trend Index out of its negative zone.
Recessions & The Stock Market
In the last couple of months, we’ve come across a handful of economic “check lists” purporting to show the relative absence of recession harbingers as the expansion closes in on its ninth anniversary this summer.