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Jul 05 2019
Stock Market

Recession Evidence: How Much Is Enough?

  • Jul 5, 2019

Over a 12-month horizon, we now believe a U.S. recession is very likely, but aren’t confident enough to make the call when the forecast window is cut in half. Second-half stock returns could be decent if the business-cycle peak is still a year away. Then again, there’s peril in waiting for “too much” confirmation of recession.

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Recession Business Cycle GDP Output Gap Early Cyclicals Yield Curve Economy Present Situation Index

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About The Author

Doug Ramsey / Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

Doug Ramsey Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of The Leuthold Group, LLC, and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Leuthold Core Investment Fund and the Leuthold Global Fund.

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