Over a 12-month horizon, we now believe a U.S. recession is very likely, but aren’t confident enough to make the call when the forecast window is cut in half. Second-half stock returns could be decent if the business-cycle peak is still a year away. Then again, there’s peril in waiting for “too much” confirmation of recession.
Jul
05
2019
Recession Evidence: How Much Is Enough?
tags
Recession Business Cycle GDP Output Gap Early Cyclicals Yield Curve Economy Present Situation IndexLogin
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