Research.LeutholdGroup

The implication from VLT Momentum is that bonds are sufficiently oversold (or, equivalently, that yields are sufficiently overbought) to trigger some degree of mean reversion over the next several months.

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With U.S. real GDP growing about 2% year-over-year and the rest of the Developed world growing even slower, it’s hard to imagine that economic momentum may be peaking.

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More upside surprises are still likely and, despite the disappointing jobs report, the overall economic picture still supports a September taper. The improving economic picture is not just happening within the U.S., but in other major countries. We still believe the upside for the U.S. 10-year is limited.

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