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Coincident Economic Indicators

Dec 13 2022

Confidence & Causality

  • Dec 13, 2022

It will be years before policymakers know the long-term effects of the COVID experiment with Modern Monetary Theory. However, the episode has helped answer, once and for all, a question that’s troubled psychologists forever: Money can buy happiness! But it can’t buy hope.

Dec 07 2022

The Inversion Before The Inversion

  • Dec 7, 2022

We found the spread between the “Expectations” and “Present Situation” series (the “Confidence Gap”) has historically moved almost in lockstep with the yield curve. As the Confidence Gap plummeted throughout 2021, the implication was the yield curve would soon follow. After some initial resistance, it did. 

Sep 08 2022

Tightening Into A Slowdown: Month Seven

  • Sep 8, 2022

An economy can slow to a standstill on a “real” basis while growing rapidly in nominal terms; it happens in emerging economies all the time. But this dichotomous condition now afflicts most of the developed world.

Jan 07 2022

Carbon-Dating The Recovery

  • Jan 7, 2022

If January is the 21st month of the recovery, then time has elapsed in “dog years.” And that might put this “canine” recovery at around 12 years—just shy of where we might be had COVID never occurred!