We found the spread between the “Expectations” and “Present Situation” series (the “Confidence Gap”) has historically moved almost in lockstep with the yield curve. As the Confidence Gap plummeted throughout 2021, the implication was the yield curve would soon follow. After some initial resistance, it did.
Dec
07
2022
The Inversion Before The Inversion
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Recession Indicators Inversion Treasury Yield Curve Coincident Economic Indicators Confidence GapLogin
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