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Nov 07 2018

Too Soon To Expect Economic Weakness?

  • Nov 7, 2018

We believe stocks have begun to discount a major inflection point in the economy and corporate profits for 2019 and 2020.

Oct 05 2018

Time To Get Contrary With Commodities?

  • Oct 5, 2018

After a strong 2016 and a “Bridesmaid” (i.e., sector runner-up) performance in 2017, the Materials sector seemed primed to benefit from the “late cycle” character of the economy in 2018.

Sep 08 2018

The Commodity Bull That Equity Investors Missed...

  • Sep 8, 2018

While the bottom-line impact may ultimately be the same, there’s one thing we find more demoralizing than getting the direction of an asset wrong: getting the direction right and not getting paid for it.

Feb 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Feb 7, 2017

The Major Trend Index stabilized in a moderately bullish range during the past several weeks, yet the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category is almost the sole carrier of the bullish torch.

May 06 2016

Thoughts On The Commodity Bounce

  • May 6, 2016

The global economic expansion will enter its eighth year later this summer, yet the world’s central bankers continue to fight deflationary demons as if it’s 2008.

Feb 05 2016

The Bullish Case: A Mental Exercise

  • Feb 5, 2016

We’ve been correctly positioned near our tactical portfolios’ equity minimums, yet we’re oddly compelled to use this month’s “Of Special Interest” section as a very public second-guessing of that move.

Aug 07 2015

Avoiding Gold

  • Aug 7, 2015

The vast majority of recent gold commentary centers on its extremely oversold technical condition and the related washout in all sorts of sentiment indicators, ranging from trader surveys to futures and options positioning. Maybe these conditions will produce a short-term bounce, but we’re going to stand with the message of our bearish longer-term work.

Mar 07 2014

Another Kind Of Decoupling?

  • Mar 7, 2014

We’ve discussed the interrelationships between industrial commodities, commodity-oriented equities and Emerging Market stocks. Getting one’s bet right on any of these three has generally led to profitable positions in all three. But that certainly hasn’t been true in recent months.

Jun 06 2012

New Higher Risk Signal Generated But Optimistically Cautious

  • Jun 6, 2012

This new “Higher Risk” signal closed out the previous “Lower Risk” signal generated last December, and this measure is telling us it’s time to play a little defense.


Dec 06 2011

Profit Margins: As Good As It Gets

  • Dec 6, 2011

Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap. 



Jun 03 2010

Estimating The Upside: Yes, We Still See Some

  • Jun 3, 2010

Despite our still (cautiously) bullish outlook, historical P/E levels which once provided support to the stock market are expected to now offer resistance as the market moves higher.

Aug 05 2008

Commodity Curtain Call?

  • Aug 5, 2008

Inflation is peaking and the GS Scores did a great job signaling an exit from the Industrial Metals play. Commodities were hit hard in July.


May 06 2008

Industrial Metals: Now Over-Mined?

  • May 6, 2008

Waiting for the curtain to fall on Industrial Metals, we recap the “three acts” and throw in a time-tested contrarian indicator to boot.