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Apr 06 2020

Time To Revisit “Why We Normalize Earnings”

  • Apr 6, 2020

With an economic calamity and the Easter season upon us, we thought this would be a great time to resurrect our “Why We Normalize Earnings” vignette. Long time readers will recognize this as a staple from Green Books’ past.

Jul 03 2019

Return Implications Of Dividend Cuts

  • Jul 3, 2019

Last month we noted that current interest-rate expectations might indicate good timing for dividend investments; however, we strongly suggested being selective, and lean toward high-quality dividend payers.

Oct 15 2018

Factors And Sectors: A Curious Entanglement

  • Oct 15, 2018

Portfolio managers who tilt toward Value or Growth stocks have long known that each style carries with it an inherent bias toward some sectors and away from others. Our recent piece, Value Style’s 100-Year Flood, highlighted the significant role that sector weights (overweight Financials and Energy, underweight Technology) played in Value’s decade-long stretch of underperformance.

Jun 07 2018

Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!

  • Jun 7, 2018

Quantitative investment firms are increasingly touting the cross-disciplinary backgrounds of their research staffs, with prior high-level experience in areas such as medical research and engineering not uncommon.

May 05 2018

Cycle Collision?

  • May 5, 2018

The coming months form a bearish cross-section of two of the most prominent calendar anomalies: “Sell In May,” and the Presidential Election Cycle (in which the mid-term year is statistically the weakest). Between the two, we’d have to rate the former as more powerful and statistically persistent.

Jan 25 2018

A Tactical Approach To Successful Factor Investing

  • Jan 25, 2018


Executive Summary / Factor Investing-An Initial Look / Factor Investing And The Importance Of Market Cycles / The Intelligent Use Of Smart Beta / A Six-Factor Study including Value, Momentum, Quality, Stability, Yield, and Size / Next Steps


Nov 07 2017

A Study On Closed End Funds

  • Nov 7, 2017

In March 1991, an article titled “Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle” was published in The Journal of Finance.

May 05 2017

The Intelligent Use Of Smart Beta

  • May 5, 2017

Quantitative investing has become an integral component of professional investment management, and smart beta funds have become popular vehicles for advisors as they assemble actively-managed client portfolios.

Feb 07 2017

Factor Investing And The Importance Of Market Cycles

  • Feb 7, 2017

While factors do offer excess return they are by no means winners in all seasons. Our findings show that factor returns are cyclical, volatile, and unstable over time.

Sep 08 2016

How Will It All End?

  • Sep 8, 2016

Last month we described ourselves as “long on equities, but light on conviction,” and that description still applies.

Dec 05 2014

The Surprising Winners In Emerging Markets

  • Dec 5, 2014

While we expect an eventual break in this relationship, today Emerging Market equities are following, fairly tightly, the cycle of industrial commodities—a cycle that rolled over (on a secular basis, we believe) in 2011.

Apr 08 2014

A Milestone You Might Have Missed

  • Apr 8, 2014

The fifth anniversary of the bull market was met with fanfare, but the launch of the Large Cap leadership cycle in April 2011 is receiving no attention whatsoever.

Jan 05 2012

New “Lower Risk” Signal Generated

  • Jan 5, 2012

Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell in December, resulting in a new “lower risk” signal that closed out the “higher risk” signal which occurred back in May. We are now cautiously optimistic.


Oct 05 2011

Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles

  • Oct 5, 2011

A new High Quality Cycle has clearly emerged and is going strong. Note that the previous High Quality Cycle started at the end of 2007 and lasted more than a year.


Jul 05 2011

Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles

  • Jul 5, 2011

High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.


Jun 05 2011

Now Entering Increasing Risk Aversion Environment

  • Jun 5, 2011

Risk Aversion Index accelerated in May, making it prudent to favor defensive assets near term. Expect small and gradual increase in long term interest rates.


Feb 02 2010

Insight Into The Cyclicality Of Equity Valuations

  • Feb 2, 2010

In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen looks at the cyclical nature of P/E ratios. The normalized P/E ratio follows an expansion/contraction cycle that has been repeated five times since 1926, but the interesting thing is that the cycles have lengthened significantly over time.


Dec 02 2008

Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data

  • Dec 2, 2008

Non-farm payroll data is poised to register a buy signal for the stock market in early December. Using the year over year rate of change has historically been very effective in identifying recession-related market bottoms.


Apr 04 2007

View From The North Country

  • Apr 4, 2007

Steve discusses his opinion of market cycle sin this month’s “View From The North Country”. He is a believer in cycles, but not so sure about rhythmic cycles. Also, his thoughts on the importance of market history.

Oct 05 2004

Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run

  • Oct 5, 2004

Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.

May 05 2004

View From The North Country

  • May 5, 2004

Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.