Research.LeutholdGroup

An earlier-than-expected X-date means higher market volatility and increased chance of a temporary short-term deal. Typically, the debt ceiling drama is short-lived and there’s not much impact on most assets before or after a resolution. Overall, the possibility of an accident is now above average.

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If we look beyond the daily noise from North Korea, the global macro picture still fits our “Goldilocks” view pretty well.

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A look at prior debt ceiling debates and patterns around resolution dates gives no surprises: markets are weaker in the two weeks before but stronger in the month after a resolution is reached.

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The new deal reached by Congress has little substance and no impact at all until 2014 or beyond. More “kick the can down the road.” Long term debt/deficit issues remain unsolved.

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