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Dow Theory

Aug 06 2021

Testing The Transports

  • Aug 6, 2021

A new market high that is not confirmed by the stocks of companies that “move the goods” is a warning signal. We reviewed the Transports’ action in all years the S&P 500 accomplished a 12-month high during the month of July, like it did this year.

Apr 07 2016

Improving Indicator Evidence

  • Apr 7, 2016

Last spring’s “Double Death Cross” in the Dow Transports and Dow Utilities had been partially reversed even before the February low, when the Dow Utilities’ 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average (thereby issuing a “Golden Cross”). The Dow Transports remain in a bear pattern based on the 50/200-day relationship, but the gap is closing fast.

Dec 08 2015

New Month, Old Worries...

  • Dec 8, 2015

While the S&P 500 had erased all but 2% of its August loss as of early December, Small Caps and the “average stock” had recouped only about half their correction losses. Not good.

Jul 08 2015

A BUY Signal That Says SELL?

  • Jul 8, 2015

Last month we discussed the negative market implications of May’s “Death Cross” signals in the Dow Transports and Dow Utilities.

Jun 05 2015

The Double Death Cross!

  • Jun 5, 2015

The Dow Transports and Dow Utilities both triggered major sell signals in May when their 50-day moving averages fell below their 200-day moving averages… known by some as a “Death Cross.”

May 07 2014

Stock Market Observations

  • May 7, 2014

DJIA eclipsed its year-end closing high; Dow Transports still strong; NYSE A/D Line hits all-time high.

Apr 08 2014

U.S. Markets See Uniform Strength, While The World Seems Fractured

  • Apr 8, 2014

Based on the historical percentages, the bull market should have a minimum of four to six months of life left. But the market has a way of throwing sand in the gears when you think you’ve begun to understand its internal mechanics.

Nov 07 2013

Little To Complain About

  • Nov 7, 2013

From a pure price action perspective, it’s difficult to find cracks in the bull market’s edifice.

Aug 07 2013

The Economy And Earnings

  • Aug 7, 2013

The YTD surge of 19% in the S&P 500 should ensure a stronger second half economy, and the big five-point jump in the latest Purchasing Managers Survey (ISM) might be the first evidence of this.

Oct 04 2012

Ten Charts To Chew On

  • Oct 4, 2012

There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.


Aug 07 2012

Technical Glitches

  • Aug 7, 2012

This summer’s rally has taken stocks to the brink of another bull market high, but it has not been an all-inclusive affair. While the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line has remained healthy, other technical indicators have not.


Jan 05 2012

New Year’s Surprise: Turning More Bullish

  • Jan 5, 2012

Major Trend Index improves to positive and Dow Theory Says “Buy”!


Sep 03 2010

Major Trend More Bearish As Market Enters Historically Weakest Month

  • Sep 3, 2010

August turned out to be a very volatile month, not the “doldrums” that many investors would have wanted to see during this traditional summer vacation month. Budding optimism that had developed in investors back in April has now apparently been completely washed out by the poor August performance.

Jul 06 2010

Stocks And Economy Joined At The Hip… For Now

  • Jul 6, 2010

Economic indicators are hypersensitive to even small changes in the data, and investors are hypersensitive to the indicators themselves.

Mar 04 2009

Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure

  • Mar 4, 2009

The “Fail-Safe” was triggered by the poor market action at the end of February, and we are moving towards a 50% net equity exposure. Caution seems prudent despite the Major Trend Index remaining in positive territory.

Feb 04 2009

Is There Trouble In The Transports?

  • Feb 4, 2009

The new low in the Dow Jones Transports is a bullish portent, but only if the Dow Jones Industrials can hold above their November low.

Oct 05 2008

Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"

  • Oct 5, 2008

Dow Theorists looking at current market environment may be concluding stocks could weaken further. However, historically when confirmation from the Transports takes an excessively long time to develop (like it has currently), the technical pattern has actually provided an excellent buy signal.


Jan 05 2008

Dow Double Trouble

  • Jan 5, 2008

Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market? 

Sep 05 2006

Transportation Stocks As Economic Warning Signal

  • Sep 5, 2006

Six of eight recessions since 1957 saw signals registered by the Transportation Divergence monitor. Recent divergence may be warning of an impending economic contraction.