Most costly market decoy in the last six weeks has been unusual (relative) strength of the Dow and S&P 500 indexes. Resilience in blue chips is characteristic of the early and middle phases of a bear market, but recent blue chip performance has been so stellar (again, in a relative sense) that most investors curled up comfortably in the “correction” camp…while small caps, cyclicals and virtually all foreign markets were screaming “BEAR!”
Yield curve typically inverted about 62% of the time.
Leuthold may have another favorite economist. Paul Krugman at Stanford was recently recognized as the best American economist under the age of forty.
A new nationally distributed newspaper has been born, USA Today. This big gamble might just pay off for Gannett. It is refreshing indeed to see a corporation make a big bet on a high-risk long-term investment, especially in this age of corporate timidity and financial mechanics. Also, Irving Kristol’s remarks at the Western Pension Conference.
Reagan’s change of economic course, leaving the hard-core supply-siders behind, was constructive, and from our standpoint, expected. Predictions for the next two years include significant social security reform, implementation of a somewhat watered down, but still very meaningful flat tax. Federal deficits in 1983 and 1984 will probably turn out to be less than now expected. And in November 1982, the Republicans will lose some seats, but the Old Cowboy will still be able to get his way with Congress when it is important.