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Jul 30 2021

The 2021 EPS Rocket Ship

  • Jul 30, 2021

If you want to see a rocket ship, there’s no need to crane your neck upwards to see the latest exploits of our billionaire space cowboys. Rather, look to our earnings glidepath chart and marvel at the contrails of the 2021 full year operating earnings for the S&P 500.  

Apr 07 2020

The Bull Is Dead, But The Leaders Live On

  • Apr 7, 2020

The bull market of 2009-2020 is no longer. But its spirit—its leadership—has somehow lingered, right through the worst of the decline and during the eleven-day, +19% S&P 500 bounce that followed.

Oct 18 2019

Giving Up The Ghost

  • Oct 18, 2019

The approach of Halloween brings thoughts of jack-o-lanterns, scary movies, and buckets full of candy. The season also marks the time when investors finally give up the ghost on the optimistic, even wishful, earnings forecasts made early in the year.

May 07 2019

Adding EM On A Rent-To-Own Basis

  • May 7, 2019

The Major Trend Index has remained in neutral territory during the last several weeks of upside action, suggesting there remain significant fundamental and technical shortcomings beneath it all. But this precarious MTI stance didn’t preclude us from acting on a new bullish reading for Emerging Market equities at the end of April.

Sep 08 2018

Beware The Breakout

  • Sep 8, 2018

The S&P 500 finally erased the losses from its nine-day swoon in January and February.

Aug 07 2018

Too Many Clocks

  • Aug 7, 2018

Whatever one’s philosophical leaning, the practice of adjusting earnings has left investors with too many watches to consult. We look deeper into the topic of adjusted earnings to gauge the slippage between commonly-referenced earnings clocks.

Jul 27 2018

How The S&P 500 Could Hit 2,500… Ten Years Out

  • Jul 27, 2018

Yesterday was the six-month anniversary of the S&P 500 bull market high, and the index celebrated the event by nearly setting a new peak. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Total Return Index did make a new high on Wednesday.

Aug 05 2017

Missing Some Pocket Cash?

  • Aug 5, 2017

Given our money management mantra of “making it and keeping it,” we can’t imagine we’ll ever get comfortable with crypto-currencies.

May 05 2017

How To (Almost) Double Your Money In Under Ten Years

  • May 5, 2017

Buying the S&P 500 on one of the worst possible days in history ultimately yielded a total return of +87.4% (+6.8% annualized) through the end of April 2017...darn, sounds like an advert for Vanguard!

Apr 07 2017

Which EPS Are We Talking About?

  • Apr 7, 2017

The distinction between reported GAAP earnings and adjusted operating earnings has long been a source of debate among fundamental investors, and the choice of “E” will materially impact each investor’s view of the market’s P/E ratio.

Feb 07 2017

“Trailing” EPS Revisited

  • Feb 7, 2017

The S&P 500 trailing P/E has just climbed above 25x—lower than in March 2009—but incredibly high for any period in which earnings weren’t tainted by recession.

Nov 05 2016

Four Thousand Companies Can’t Be Wrong!

  • Nov 5, 2016

Scott Opsal’s “Chart of the Week” in mid-October suggested the seven-quarter S&P 500 earnings recession may have run its course.

Oct 20 2016

EPS Touching Bottom?

  • Oct 20, 2016

Early in the third quarter earnings season, S&P 500 companies are providing a glimmer of hope that the long earnings recession may be ending. 

Aug 05 2016

No Sector On Sale...

  • Aug 5, 2016

While cap-weighted U.S. indexes remain far below their 2000 valuation highs, in some ways today’s market presents an even more difficult hurdle for value managers.

May 06 2016

Xenophobia Gone Too Far?

  • May 6, 2016

Donald Trump’s all-but-certain Republican nomination is somehow a fitting capstone to a stock market era in which it’s paid to be provincial.

Oct 07 2015

Valuations: The Bad And The Good

  • Oct 7, 2015

Foreign valuations experienced nowhere near the expansion enjoyed by U.S. stocks during the latest bull market, but their cheaper valuations rarely seem to inoculate them from outsized losses during corrections and bear markets.

Jul 08 2015

A Kind Word For “Forward Earnings”

  • Jul 8, 2015

Our criticism of the widespread trust in “forward earnings” has sometimes been harsh, but consider the following: the latest 12-month forward EPS estimate for the EAFE index is $122.71, virtually matching the forward estimate that was made in January 2006.

Apr 08 2015

Earnings: Less Than Meets The Eye

  • Apr 8, 2015

Amid all the praise heaped on the corporate sector for posting record earnings in the midst of a sluggish global expansion, allow us a respectful vote of dissent. Earnings are abysmal—especially among the S&P 500 companies presumed to be the torch-carriers for this cycle’s profitability rebound.

Mar 07 2014

Market Valuation Check

  • Mar 7, 2014

Stocks have long looked expensive on the basis of dividend yield, but now they look increasingly stretched on Forward EPS.

Feb 07 2014

Sector Weightings Adjust To Reflect January Loss Leaders

  • Feb 7, 2014

Consumer Discretionary sector weightings sank among all three market tiers, as this segment led the market lower in January. Health Care and Utilities sector weightings increased, as both outperformed for the month.

Dec 06 2013

Dissecting The Capital Tier Indices

  • Dec 6, 2013

Sector weight changes during November were minimal. 

Dec 06 2013

Earning Momentum

  • Dec 6, 2013

While the current ratio of 1.37 is relatively weak historically, it is still an improvement from the second months’ readings of Q2 (1.27) and Q1 (1.16).

Dec 06 2013

Finding Value In “Forward Earnings”

  • Dec 6, 2013

Forward earnings might be the greatest Wall Street innovation in history: a tool that makes the stock market look cheap all the time.

Oct 08 2013

S&P 500: Equal Weighted Outperforms In Q3; Maintains Lead YTD

  • Oct 8, 2013

On a YTD basis, the spread between these two indices continues to expand, with the Equal Weighted index now outperforming by more than 4%.  Consumer Staples is the most expensive sector among Large and Mid Caps, while Health Care is most expensive in Small Caps.

Oct 08 2013

Earnings Momentum - Q2 Reports Below Average But Ahead Of Q1

  • Oct 8, 2013

With all three months of Q2 earnings reports in, the 1.28 ratio is much stronger than Q1, but remains below the 1.51 historical average ratio.

Oct 08 2013

Global Valuations Rising, But U.S. Still At A Premium

  • Oct 8, 2013

The large valuation discount on foreign shares has narrowed a bit, reflecting better relative action in foreign shares over the past 14 months and relatively weaker foreign fundamentals.

Sep 10 2013

Q2 Median Company Earnings Growth Rates Vary Drastically Across Cap Size

  • Sep 10, 2013

EPS growth for Large and Mid Cap companies continues exceeding their top-line growth, but Small and Micro Cap companies saw their EPS growth rates coming in below their top-line growth rates.

Sep 10 2013

Q2 Median Revenue Comparisons: Higher Growth Across All Segments

  • Sep 10, 2013

Large Cap result this month is the same as last month, but remains stronger than Q1. Smaller firms reversed course, as Mid, Small, and Micro Caps all rebounded with large sales momentum increases.

Aug 07 2013

Dissecting The Capital Tier Indices

  • Aug 7, 2013

Consumer Discretionary’s weight increased the most in the S&P 500, rising 0.5%. Health Care rose the most in Mid Caps (+0.3%), while Information Technology rose the most in Small Caps (+0.7%).

Aug 07 2013

Key Observations On Q2 S&P 1500 Earnings

  • Aug 7, 2013

Year-over-year EPS growth rate for companies with Q2 reports (with about 65% in) currently stands at +4.2%, while revenue growth has come in at a better than expected +2.6%.

Aug 07 2013

Q2 Median Company Earnings: Growth Rates Volatile But Positive In General

  • Aug 7, 2013

EPS growth rates are coming in higher than expected. While sales growth remains muted, the ability of companies to do more with less and maintain high operating margins is impressive. Margins are determined at the discretion of management and are thus sticky and unlikely to drop off significantly unless wage pressures resume and slack capacity around the globe is absorbed.

Aug 07 2013

Q2 Median Revenue Comparisons: Higher Growth In Large And Mid Caps

  • Aug 7, 2013

Q2 relative to Q1 growth rates have improved for larger cap companies but deteriorated for the smaller firms.

Feb 05 2012

Predictions for 2012…

  • Feb 5, 2012

From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.


Jul 04 2005

Further Upside In Integrated Oil?: Analysts’ EPS Estimates Still Appear Too Conservative

  • Jul 4, 2005

Revised forecasts again appear to be too conservative given prevailing spot and futures prices.

May 05 2004

A Closer Look At Seemingly Cheap Valuations Based On Corporate Profits

  • May 5, 2004

S&P 500 valuations using corporate profits (National Income Accounts), not as cheap as suggested and are likely faulty, in our opinion.

Mar 03 2004

Sector Spotlight: Health Care

  • Mar 3, 2004

Conceptually we think that the big drug stocks are poised to rebound, but they have yet to rank Attractive in the Group Selection Scores.

Nov 05 2002

S&P's "Core" Earnings Methodology Losing Support?

  • Nov 5, 2002

We applauded S&P for developing a standardized approach which adjusts GAAP earnings for several problem accounting areas and produces a better representation of “True” earnings.