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High Beta

Oct 07 2022

Seasonal Nightmare Ending?

  • Oct 7, 2022

We’ve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically “cursed” from the onset. It’s a year ending in “2” and a Shmita year on the Jewish calendar, both of which have been associated with far below average stock market returns. More importantly, it’s a midterm election year, traditionally the weakest of the four-year cycle.

Aug 05 2022

High-Beta Bounce

  • Aug 5, 2022

High-beta stocks outdid everything else during July, after getting crushed during the first half of 2022. At the end of June, Momentum was more correlated with low beta than any other time in our history.

Jun 18 2021

Price to Book: Obsolete, Or Just Misunderstood?

  • Jun 18, 2021

The Value style has broadly underperformed for more than ten years, and the blame for this dismal decade has often been placed squarely on the Price to Book metric. Could it be that Price to Book’s sullied reputation is undeserved?

May 15 2020

The Chart Everyone Missed

  • May 15, 2020

When we first met Steve Leuthold in the old company office in a renovated warehouse, he was updating a several-foot-long chart of either the DJIA or S&P 500, by hand, and we got a brief lecture on the importance of using logarithmic scale on price charts.


Jun 01 2018

If You Think This Market’s Fishy, You’re Right

  • Jun 1, 2018

Tomorrow is the Minnesota season-opener for muskies, but the fanatics who chase them are likely disappointed that it comes a few days after an event that’s known to trigger these beasts: the full moon. The screenshot is from our $9.95 “iSolunar” iPhone app, and shows that Saturday merits only a “three fish” day (out of a possible “four fish”)—based on the moon’s fading illumination. 


Aug 05 2017

High Beta Breakout?

  • Aug 5, 2017

Last month we spent a full page explaining why the underperformance of the S&P 500 High Beta Index was not a bearish portent for stocks (Chart 1).

Jul 08 2017

What Does The Low Vol Divergence Mean?

  • Jul 8, 2017

Low Volatility stocks have been the darlings of this bull market, and Low Vol is now considered a long-term “alpha generator” alongside such Hall of Fame quant factors as Low P/E and Price Momentum.

Jan 07 2017

Tilt Toward Beta

  • Jan 7, 2017

Stock market valuations certainly show no lack of investor confidence: each of our “Big Six” valuation measures now resides in either its ninth or tenth historical decile.

Nov 05 2016

The “Low Vol” Unwind: Just The Beginning?

  • Nov 5, 2016

In mid-summer we suggested that attaining new market highs would probably require a rotation away from the long-time Low Volatility market leaders and into High Beta areas like Technology and industrial cyclicals.

Oct 07 2016

Beta Rotation Underway

  • Oct 7, 2016

For months we’ve speculated that any major extension of the bull market would require a rotation into High Beta groups from the Low Volatility and economically-defensive themes that were the market’s big winners from mid-2015 to mid-2016.

Sep 08 2016

Rotation Away From Low Vol?

  • Sep 8, 2016

An encouraging break from a 15-month leadership pattern: Low Vol stocks have rolled over since mid-July, while the High Beta cohort has finally eclipsed its late-April highs.

Aug 05 2016

Not Entirely In Sync

  • Aug 5, 2016

Despite the market’s strong rebound from February lows, four of the seven “Red Flag Indicator” components have failed to confirm the July new-cycle S&P 500 highs.

Jul 08 2016

Low Vol Divergence, Episode 3

  • Jul 8, 2016

The divergence between S&P 500 Low Volatility and High Beta Indexes has emerged for the 3rd time in a year. The 3-month performance spread is even more extreme than it had been on the eve of either the August or December stock market air pockets.

Jun 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2016

Commentators now label this cyclical advance the “seven-year bull market,” but that won’t be semantically true until the S&P 500 closes above its May 2015 peak of 2130.82.

May 06 2016

Sizing Up The Rally

  • May 6, 2016

While our MTI became bullish in mid-April, we can’t rule out that the rebound from February lows could be an impressive bear market rally. However, this rally sports impressive technical credentials.

Apr 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Apr 7, 2016

The stock market rally off the February 11th lows has been powerful enough to lift the Major Trend Index into its Neutral zone (in fact, a high-neutral ratio of 1.04), and therefore certainly deserves some level of respect.

Mar 08 2016

Beta Back In Vogue?

  • Mar 8, 2016

High Beta has certainly lived up to its billing, during both the multi-month decline and the three-week rally off the February 11th correction low.

Jun 05 2011

Does The “Beta Breakdown” Matter?

  • Jun 5, 2011

Significant pull-back in High Beta stocks, but the weakening bid does not necessarily spell the end of the bull market.

May 05 2004

Our Work With Beta Adjusted Relative Strength Pays Dividends

  • May 5, 2004

Over the last few years, we have been employing a beta adjusted relative strength calculation for high beta groups, along with the traditional relative strength. There are often more revealing signals given by the beta adjusted relative strength, especially in recent years.

Jun 05 1993

Worth Noting

  • Jun 5, 1993

May supply/demand, seasonal investing and a study of Beta.