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Feb 05 2022

Speed Trap Ahead?

  • Feb 5, 2022

In San Francisco, thefts of less than $950 have been decriminalized, while in Minneapolis, police are so beleaguered that car thefts not involving injury are ignored. Is it any wonder that the economy felt free to violate its usual stock market “speed limits” throughout much of 2021?  

Nov 05 2021

Manufacturing: More Citations For Speeding

  • Nov 5, 2021

It is much easier to predict inflation, itself, than to predict when investors will become traumatized by it. Some of the most helpful measures for the latter task come from the ISM Manufacturing Report. October’s readings saw three key measures above the statistical “speed limits” we calculated years ago.

Jul 07 2018

A New ISM “Composite”

  • Jul 7, 2018

Over the past year, we’ve highlighted three mechanical market models based solely on components of the ISM monthly manufacturing report (Charts 1-3).

Dec 07 2017

The Chart The Fed Forgot

  • Dec 7, 2017

The Fed has long claimed itself to be “data dependent” while providing less and less information on those data points it considers most relevant. We can’t know what’s on that list, but we certainly know what isn’t: the ISM Manufacturing Composite, which (prior to the current cycle) provided an excellent gauge of the Fed’s policy bias.

Mar 07 2016

Muddle-Through Still Has The Benefit Of The Doubt

  • Mar 7, 2016

The market’s latest infatuation with bonds was driven by grave concerns that the weakness in energy and manufacturing sectors might be spreading to the U.S. economy as a whole.

Oct 07 2015

Chinese Economic Concerns Are Overdone

  • Oct 7, 2015

The traditional economic indicators are no longer as relevant as people think, and China’s condition may not be as bad as most fear.