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Mid-Term Elections

Nov 09 2018

Have We Already Had The Year-End Rally?

  • Nov 9, 2018

In the March Green Book, we discussed the long history of stock market difficulties during mid-term election years. Incredibly, nine of the past 11 cyclical bear market lows have occurred in these years, with eight of those nine recorded during the seasonally-weak months of May through October (Table 1).

Oct 05 2018

Seasonality Set To Favor The Bulls

  • Oct 5, 2018

Our bearish stance could be tested by the arrival of the seasonally strongest six-month window of the four-year electoral cycle. Since 1926, November of the mid-term year through April of the pre-election year has produced an average un-annualized S&P 500 +16.4% total return.

Oct 05 2018

Mid-Term Elections—History Might Not Be A Good Guide

  • Oct 5, 2018

While mid-term elections are rarely big market movers, this year’s election demands more attention as it has the potential to alter the balance of political power in Washington.

Aug 17 2018

Stock Market Defies Seasonal Gravity

  • Aug 17, 2018

“That which does not kill us, makes us stronger” might be a good motto for this never-ending bull market. The bull continues to shrug off the effects of both Quantitative Tightening and an escalating trade war, and it’s doing so during a seasonal stretch in which many of its predecessors have sunk to their knees (if not their demise).

May 05 2018

Cycle Collision?

  • May 5, 2018

The coming months form a bearish cross-section of two of the most prominent calendar anomalies: “Sell In May,” and the Presidential Election Cycle (in which the mid-term year is statistically the weakest). Between the two, we’d have to rate the former as more powerful and statistically persistent.

Apr 27 2018

Have Stocks Already Priced In “MAGA?”

  • Apr 27, 2018

Athletes aren’t the only ones known to sometimes suffer a “sophomore slump.” Presidents do, too… at least according to the historical verdict of the stock market...

Mar 07 2018

Mid-Term Mayhem?

  • Mar 7, 2018

The prospect of a mid-term congressional shake-up may rattle the markets in 2018. Since 1962, nine major bear market lows occurred during mid-term election years, with eight of those happening during the traditionally weak months of May through October.

Oct 06 2014

Mid-Term Election – Favorable For Stocks

  • Oct 6, 2014

General patterns are a weaker dollar, rising stocks and range-bound bond yields.