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Monetary Measures

Feb 07 2020

Liquidity Overflow!

  • Feb 7, 2020

Based largely on the bearish trends in our monetary and liquidity measures, we were correctly negative on stocks throughout most of 2018. It’s therefore especially painful for us that 2019’s market rebound has been credited almost entirely to the “pivot” in most of those measures.

Sep 07 2019

Monetary Madness

  • Sep 7, 2019

We always do our own work and draw our own conclusions. Lately, though, we’ve wondered what the late “Monetary Marty” Zweig might say about the stock market’s current liquidity backdrop.

Aug 07 2019

Who Doesn’t Love “Excess” Money?

  • Aug 7, 2019

We’d concede the monetary backdrop for stocks is now mixed, an upgrade from the almost uniformly negative environment of last fall. On the negative side, the U.S. yield curve inversion has now persisted long enough that even the economic optimists are getting nervous.

May 07 2019

Mixed Monetary Messages

  • May 7, 2019

Confidence in the U.S. economy’s health reached a new peak with the April employment report, with a blowout number for nonfarm payroll coinciding with a soft wage print.

Mar 07 2019

Watch What They Do, Not What They Say

  • Mar 7, 2019

While the celebration over Jerome Powell’s “Christmas Capitulation” lingered throughout February, we’re still awaiting signs the capitulation consisted of anything more than words.

Dec 07 2018

It’s About Money, Not Profits

  • Dec 7, 2018

The consensus focus all year has been on the boom in U.S. corporate profits.