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Near-Term Forward Spread

Aug 05 2023

A Delayed Day Of Reckoning?

  • Aug 5, 2023

Today, the recession / no-recession call dominates daily market debate probably more than any time since the spring of 2008 (when the economy had been in recession for 4-5 months). We fully expect the U.S. economy to roll over in the next several months.

Jul 08 2023

Don’t Let Economists Work From Home…

  • Jul 8, 2023

Last month, we noted that Jay Powell’s preferred measure of the yield curve—Near Term Forward Spread (NTFS)—was a winner, but a newly introduced index by the Fed, “Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth (FCI-G),” is a dud. Several simple forecasting gauges we’ve relied on for years are considerably more effective.

Jun 07 2023

This Curve Threw Us A Curve...

  • Jun 7, 2023

Future economists learning of zero interest rates and Fed balance-sheet expansion during the 2021 inflation surge may wonder if policymakers were “on” something. Jay Powell is clearly “onto” something with his focus on a measure that few are familiar with: the Near-Term Forward Spread (NTFS).