“In Search Of Earnings Disappointments”, Jim Floyd’s late March “The Numbers Game” publication and Perception II’s new clean look. The U. S. Murder rate is now decreasing…This is very surprising to most of us. The Republicans have cleaned house in the House, sharply reducing costs and improving efficiencies.
The incentive system from hell: Adjusted for inflation, we now spend nine times as much on welfare as when the War on Poverty began in 1965. Also, an interesting study by Collins Associates: Past performance is not a reliable prediction of future performance and, in fact, is a poor predictor of future results.
Reagan’s change of economic course, leaving the hard-core supply-siders behind, was constructive, and from our standpoint, expected. Predictions for the next two years include significant social security reform, implementation of a somewhat watered down, but still very meaningful flat tax. Federal deficits in 1983 and 1984 will probably turn out to be less than now expected. And in November 1982, the Republicans will lose some seats, but the Old Cowboy will still be able to get his way with Congress when it is important.