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Presidential Election Cycle

May 05 2018

Cycle Collision?

  • May 5, 2018

The coming months form a bearish cross-section of two of the most prominent calendar anomalies: “Sell In May,” and the Presidential Election Cycle (in which the mid-term year is statistically the weakest). Between the two, we’d have to rate the former as more powerful and statistically persistent.

Apr 27 2018

Have Stocks Already Priced In “MAGA?”

  • Apr 27, 2018

Athletes aren’t the only ones known to sometimes suffer a “sophomore slump.” Presidents do, too… at least according to the historical verdict of the stock market...

Feb 07 2017

Trump Inherits Poor ‘Initial Conditions’

  • Feb 7, 2017

We think that stocks in Trump’s current term will fall short of Obama’s gains, mostly reflecting a valuation starting point that’s almost twice as high as Obama’s was. “Managing expectations” doesn’t seem like Trump’s style, but in the case of the stock market it might not be a bad idea.

Feb 03 2017

Apologizing in Advance for Trump

  • Feb 3, 2017

While Wall Street is extremely well represented in the new administration, we doubt that Wall Street’s performance under Trump will come close to that enjoyed under Obama.

Dec 08 2015

Another Cycle Snafu

  • Dec 8, 2015

In regards to fixed time cycles, Richard Russell—who died last month at 91—used to complain, “Where are they when you need them?” We agree, and present 2015 as just the latest example.

Jan 08 2015

2015: An “Anomaly?”

  • Jan 8, 2015

We’ve written periodically about the Presidential Election Cycle in relation to stock prices, sheepishly acknowledging both the persistence of the pre-election year effect and its pervasiveness across many markets

Aug 07 2014

The Worst Of The “Window” Is Upon Us

  • Aug 7, 2014

Three months ago, our “Of Special Interest” section reviewed the historically pronounced effect of the well-known “Sell In May” phenomenon during mid-term years of the presidential election cycle.

May 07 2014

Two Market Anomalies Intact: A Quantitative Review

  • May 7, 2014

We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.

May 07 2014

A Quick Take On Time Cycles

  • May 7, 2014

We stop short of embracing any sort of fixed stock market time cycle, but it's statistically difficult to discredit certain calendar patterns.

Mar 06 2012

Small Cap Stocks: Hard To Make The Numbers Work…

  • Mar 6, 2012

Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.

 

May 04 2011

Selling In May: A Market Maxim That Won’t Go Away!

  • May 4, 2011

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.

 

Sep 03 2010

Will The Fabled Election Cycle Work Again?

  • Sep 3, 2010

Doug Ramsey looks at his own 15 month election cycle work to examine historical performance for a variety of different asset classes.

Sep 03 2008

Where Wall Street Meets Pennsylvania Avenue

  • Sep 3, 2008

Presidential election-year performance vs. non-Presidential election-year performance…. Searching for an intersection that doesn’t exist!

 

Nov 03 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Nov 3, 2004

An analysis comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

Oct 05 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Oct 5, 2004

The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.

Sep 05 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Sep 5, 2004

Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

Aug 04 2004

Pre- And Post-Election Stock Market Performance

  • Aug 4, 2004

Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

Jul 04 2004

The "Wait and See" Market

  • Jul 4, 2004

It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.

Jun 01 2004

Market Volatility And The Presidential Cycle...Surprisingly Lower

  • Jun 1, 2004

This month, at the request of a client, we examined stock market performance volatility in the periods leading up to past Presidential elections.

May 05 2004

Market Mood Swings

  • May 5, 2004

Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.

May 03 1984

View from the North Country

  • May 3, 1984

It seems that once all of Wall Street becomes aware of an indicator or historic market pattern, the damn things no longer seem to work. Is this now true of the Presidential election cycle? Well, don’t give up on this yet. According to Arthur Merrill’s research, the market so far in 1984 has been acting just like it is supposed to. The fireworks come in the last two quarters of the year.