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Rate Hike

Feb 05 2022

Not All “First Hikes” Are Equal

  • Feb 5, 2022

The market has started to price in a much faster pace of the Fed’s tightening this year. We have found more similarities than differences between recent market action and the historical patterns around the first rate hike.

Feb 07 2020

The Alternate Ending?

  • Feb 7, 2020

After last year’s spectacularly successful pivot following the December 2018 plunge, the thinking is that future rate hikes are the bull market’s only threat. Perhaps that will be the case; the belief is certainly well-supported by postwar U.S. economic history, but it also reveals a shocking lapse in short-term memory.

Oct 06 2017

Year Of The G.O.A.T. ?

  • Oct 6, 2017

Entering 2017, we expected a stock market “melt-up” to the 2,550-2,600 level on the S&P 500—a move we thought might run into trouble by late summer.

Oct 06 2016

Markets & Election—All Risk And No Reward

  • Oct 6, 2016

The upcoming election is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on both monetary and fiscal policies and we expect election risk to overshadow the Fed policy risk for the time being.

Dec 08 2015

Impact Of The First Hike - This Time Might Really Be Different

  • Dec 8, 2015

At this point, the worst outcome for the risk markets would be no hike in December.