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Real Interest Rates

Dec 07 2018

They Can’t Tax What’s Not Earned

  • Dec 7, 2018

With three quarters of a sharply lower corporate tax rate on the books, the median four-quarter trailing profit margin for both the S&P 500 and S&P MidCap 400 jumped to all-time records in the third quarter.

Sep 19 2018

Real Rates and the Federal Deficit

  • Sep 19, 2018

The real short-term interest rate shows how inappropriately-loose monetary policy has remained in the face of a steady economic expansion.

Sep 08 2018

Real Rates And The Federal Deficit

  • Sep 8, 2018

We previously mentioned the increasing focus on the real short-term interest rate as an important measure of the Fed’s policy stance. In truth, we wish the Fed had paid more attention to this measure during this cycle.

Jul 20 2018

Rates Are Up, But Are They High Enough To Punish?

  • Jul 20, 2018

While momentum has been the best-performing stock selection factor in 2018, there’s a less well-known and purely fundamental factor that rates almost as well: A company’s ability to lose money!

Apr 08 2015

Real Rates Are Perking Up

  • Apr 8, 2015

With negative nominal yields throughout Europe dominating the fixed income headlines, a very different development in the United States has failed to attract any attention: the emergence of positive real short-term interest rates in the past two months.

Nov 07 2013

How Long Can Small Caps Lead?

  • Nov 7, 2013

The Russell 2000 is about five points ahead of Large Caps YTD, and is approaching its April 2011 long-term relative peak. We view this outperformance as their leadership’s last gasp and not a new cycle.

May 11 2013

Gold, After The Deluge

  • May 11, 2013

Gold broke sharply lower in April, possibly sounding the death knell for the 12-year bull market in gold (and silver). We sold one-third of our holdings in the Core and Global funds in late February at around $1595/oz., cutting each fund’s position to 4% of total assets from 6% previously. Following the big bounce in late April, we sold another chunk at $1470/oz., leaving both Core and Global funds each with a small position of 2.5% of total assets that we’ll likely continue to hold, simply in the interest of diversification.