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Recessions

Mar 07 2023

Bulls, Bears, And Boxing

  • Mar 7, 2023

Bears normally walk on all fours, just like their congenitally happier counterparts. But images we see of bears attacking prey (or humans) usually show them on two feet. Maybe there’s a lesson there.

Feb 07 2023

1966-67: When The Yield Curve “Failed”

  • Feb 7, 2023

Given the tendency of economists and strategists to dismiss the message of an inverted yield curve, it’s surprising there’s been no scrutiny of the “dog that didn’t bark”—the inversion of 1966. That’s the last time an inverted curve did not lead to a recession.

Jan 13 2023

Is This Year’s Strong Start “Signal Or Noise?”

  • Jan 13, 2023

This year is off to a much stronger start than suggested by the 3-4% gains in the blue-chip averages: Through January 12th, the Value Line Arithmetic Composite—an equally-weighted index of about 1,700 stocks, was up 7.0%.

Sep 08 2022

Another Stab At The “Downside”

  • Sep 8, 2022

How far might the S&P 500 fall in a recessionary bear market? The 2002 and 2020 stock market lows were both produced by “recessionary” bears; based on history back to the 1920s, those two lows stand out as the priciest bear market bottoms on record—and it’s not even close.

May 13 2022

Some Perspective For Dip Buyers

  • May 13, 2022

Losses in the Russell 2000 Growth Index and the NYFANG+ Index have topped 40%, and the only true equity rockstar, spawned by a 13-year secular bull market, has watched her fund’s value drop by more than three-quarters. Yet there’s still a televised debate as to whether this decline is even a bear! Could there be a more devious creature on the face of the planet?

 

Sep 24 2021

The EPS Recovery And "The Cycle"

  • Sep 24, 2021

In a couple of weeks, final second quarter EPS for the S&P 500 will confirm the fastest recovery ever from a recession-related earnings decline. That’s old news, and before it has even hit the tape. But we’ve had a sneak peak from the monthly, 12-month trailing EPS numbers published by MSCI for its USA Large Cap Index. Those figures showed that EPS exceeded their pre-COVID peak in May, and the latest reading (through August) is already 22% above the prior high! Simple trendline analysis suggests that EPS for U.S. Large Caps are likely higher today than they would have been in the absence of the COVID pandemic and hyper-stimulative response. 

 

Dec 06 2019

Slowdown Or Recession? No Confidence In “Confidence”

  • Dec 6, 2019

The ultimate question is whether the Fed’s recent “insurance cuts” are enough to overcome uncertainties about trade talk—and the upcoming election—to avert a recession. We updated our “Slowdown vs. Recession” study to see where we stand now. The bottom line is: It’s too early to rule out a recession.