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Jul 08 2021

Reflation Trade—Still Has The Benefit Of The Doubt

  • Jul 8, 2021

The Fed surprised the market with a hawkish projection of two rate hikes in 2023. Real yields did not move up as they typically do with such an episode. Overall, the damage was limited to the reflation trade, and the risk-rally is intact.

Mar 05 2021

Reflation Trade Or Real-Yield Tantrum?

  • Mar 5, 2021

The market focus has started to shift from a reflation trade to a real-yield tantrum. We compare the latest real-yield tantrum with four prior episodes where rate increases were driven by higher real yields, while breakeven rates were flat to lower: 2005, 2013, 2015, and 2018.

May 05 2017

Reflation Trade Complicated By Data Challenges

  • May 5, 2017

The dominant theme in the last few weeks has been the notable weakness in macro-economic data.