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Apr 06 2023

The MOVE Is Now A Better Risk Gauge

  • Apr 6, 2023

The MOVE index, a volatility gauge for the bond market, has become a far better risk barometer—and it surged to a new cycle high in March.

Aug 06 2018

Risk Barbell Or Middle Of The Road?

  • Aug 6, 2018

The underperformance of investment grade credit this year prompted the question of whether a risk-barbell portfolio of safe Treasuries and risky high-yield bonds may offer better performance than a middle-of-the-road portfolio of 100% investment grade corporate bonds in a highly-uncertain environment.

Oct 07 2016

The Fog Of Uncertainty

  • Oct 7, 2016

Investing is, by its very nature, a forward-looking endeavor. The returns that are earned and the risks that are incurred by investments made today will only be determined tomorrow.

Aug 05 2016

From Turkey To Thailand, EM Political Risks Hard To Dodge

  • Aug 5, 2016

A military coup was staged in Turkey on Friday, July 15th, but it was quickly suppressed. The damage, however, was done.

Mar 07 2016

New Bond Market Record: G5 10-Year Average Hit All-Time Low

  • Mar 7, 2016

Despite the improvement in market sentiment, U.S. bond yields were dragged lower by their international counterparts.

Feb 05 2016

The Current State Of Stock-Bond Relationship: Risk-Off

  • Feb 5, 2016

The transition we saw last year from a mostly Risk-On (or Easing) environment to a more challenging Tightening (or Risk-Off) environment has made the relationship especially volatile.

Aug 07 2014

Chinese Stocks: Accounting Red Flag Screen

  • Aug 7, 2014

We examine several models or screens to detect accounting or governance risks.

Feb 07 2014

Risk Aversion Index Turns Higher, New “Higher Risk” Signal

  • Feb 7, 2014

We are turning defensive within fixed income and recommend moving up the quality scale.

Jan 08 2014

Buy The Bridesmaid, Not The One Looking To Rebound

  • Jan 8, 2014

The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

Jan 08 2014
Dec 06 2013

Risk Aversion Index Edges Lower, Stays On Its “Lower Risk” Signal

  • Dec 6, 2013

We are in the seasonally favorable part of the year and we continue favoring high-grade credits within fixed income.

Sep 10 2013

RAI Falls, But Stays On “Higher Risk” Signal—Remain Cautious

  • Sep 10, 2013

The RAI fell in August and stayed on a “High Risk” signal. We remain cautious and recommend higher quality within fixed income.

Aug 07 2013

RAI Fell, But Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal—Remain Cautious

  • Aug 7, 2013

The RAI fell in July and stayed on a “High Risk” signal. We remain cautious and recommend higher quality within fixed income.

Jul 05 2011

Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles

  • Jul 5, 2011

High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.


Nov 04 2010

Commodities vs. Style Factors: A Risk Perspective

  • Nov 4, 2010

Chun Wang uses the CRB Index as a risk proxy to test the effectiveness of a range of quantitative factors in various environments. Commodity prices have become an increasingly important measure of risk, since higher commodity prices indicate a greater risk appetite and vice versa.


Jul 06 2010

Risk Aversion and “Episodic” Factor Returns: Investors Favoring Conservative Characteristics

  • Jul 6, 2010

We expect risk appetites to remain low and investors to continue to reward conservative stock characteristics over the next 3-6 months.


Oct 05 2009

Righting The Ship Of Risk/Reward

  • Oct 5, 2009

As of the end of Q1, the 20 year total return ACR differential between the S&P 500 and Ten Year Treasuries was negative, and at its lowest reading in 60 years.

Dec 04 2002

Eight Weeks Up....Now What?

  • Dec 4, 2002

Assessing Market Risk. We see minor or minimal risk from the economy, inflation, and earnings. But, terrorist attacks and valuations could be more significant risk. Iraq is a moderate short term risk.

Jun 05 2001

View From The North Country

  • Jun 5, 2001

Managing Your Mother Lode…Your Serious Money. Ten rules written for a soon to be published book, The Book Of Investing Rules, which contains an anthology of rules from well-known investors and financial professionals.

May 05 2001

Looking At Stock Market Risk and Analyzing Past Bear Markets

  • May 5, 2001

A look back at 20 prior bear markets (1900 to date) to examine the question, “Just how long does it take to recover from a bear market?”

Mar 05 2000

The Great Two-Way Market

  • Mar 5, 2000

Cribbing from Charles Dickens, February was the best of times and the worst of times.

Nov 04 1998

View From the North Country

  • Nov 4, 1998

Recent “hedge” fund trauma marks the end of hedge fund mania. The risk in quantitative models: Never bet the entire farm on any statistical model when the unpredictability of the human factor is involved.

May 05 1997

Risk/Reward Stock Substitutes

  • May 5, 1997

Bonds as attractive Risk/Reward substitutes...disguise them with fictional names such as Bondo Ltd., etc.

May 05 1994

View From the North Country

  • May 5, 1994

Economic expansion now 40 months old...Yes, it has been somewhat anemic, but nevertheless it may be well past middle age. Getting real about risk: risk is not the same as volatility.

Apr 05 1994

View From the North Country

  • Apr 5, 1994

Is sophisticated the same as smart? Market neutral operations are supposed to involve little or no market risk, so how could the entire asset base go down the drain?