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Russell 2000

Aug 06 2021

A Look At The Small-Cap Setback

  • Aug 6, 2021

The Russell 2000 has blown the 14% lead it had built against the S&P 500 earlier this year, and now trails the index by almost 5%. Has that type of intra-year reversal happened before, and, if so, did it portend a major change in leadership?

May 07 2020

Where Are The Leaders We Need?

  • May 7, 2020

Small Caps lagged during the bounce off the March lows before a late-April spurt briefly pulled them ahead of the S&P 500. Still, considering that Russell 2000 losses were so much steeper than the S&P 500’s (-43% versus -33%), we would have expected something better.

Apr 07 2020

Small Cap Smack-Down

  • Apr 7, 2020

We were fooled on Small Caps, and it’s been a “multi-factor” catastrophe.

Dec 18 2019

A Small Cap Strategy Session

  • Dec 18, 2019

Leuthold’s research team has recently flagged a number of items that suggest it may be time to consider small cap stocks. This asset class has been showing signs of life and the decision to overweight small caps is starting to seem relevant – and perhaps nicely profitable - again.

Nov 07 2019

VLT Complicates The Market Puzzle

  • Nov 7, 2019

At October’s close, a long-term BUY signal was triggered on the Russell 2000. The fact that some market segments are triggering “oversold BUYS” when blue chips are at record highs speaks volumes about the internal disparities that have developed during the last few years. The Russell BUY signal is not inconsistent with our belief that the action since the January 2018 peak remains part of a lengthy cyclical topping process.

Nov 01 2019

The Market Puzzle Gets Even More Complicated

  • Nov 1, 2019

At last night’s close, the Russell 2000 generated a “low-risk” BUY signal on our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm, a possibility we’d alluded to in the September and October Green Books.

Oct 05 2019

Small Cap VLT BUY: Not Quite...

  • Oct 5, 2019

Small Caps came tantalizingly close to activating a major VLT BUY signal in September, with the Russell 2000 closing less than a half percent below the trigger level. A new bull signal from this indicator wouldn’t “fit” into our market and economic narrative, but we won’t sweep it under the rug if it occurs.

Sep 20 2019

Box Jumpers Beware!

  • Sep 20, 2019

Style rotation! Regime change! Market action of the first two weeks of September coaxed the few remaining Small Cap Value managers off ledges from New York to San Francisco.

Sep 07 2019

Small Caps: “What If?”

  • Sep 7, 2019

The Russell 2000 is the most important major index on the cusp of a new BUY signal. Our best guess is that Small Caps will still trend lower for now, creating a buying opportunity in the months ahead.

Jul 05 2019

Big Is Still Beautiful

  • Jul 5, 2019

The 10-year-old bull grabs most of the headlines, but its younger sibling has begun to command more respect.

Mar 22 2019

Partying Like It’s 1998-99

  • Mar 22, 2019

We thought Jerome Powell’s “Christmas Capitulation” would be tough to beat, but he accomplished that two days ago with what could be called his “Spring Surrender.” That, in turn, has rekindled hopes of a stock market melt-up along the lines of 1998-99, which, as old-timers will remember, followed a late-cycle correction that was nearly identical to the one seen last year.


Jul 07 2018

Multiple Personality Disorder?

  • Jul 7, 2018

Market behavior is always nebulous enough to generate diverging opinions, but lately it’s been sufficiently strange to give rise to a diverging set of facts.

Jun 01 2018

If You Think This Market’s Fishy, You’re Right

  • Jun 1, 2018

Tomorrow is the Minnesota season-opener for muskies, but the fanatics who chase them are likely disappointed that it comes a few days after an event that’s known to trigger these beasts: the full moon. The screenshot is from our $9.95 “iSolunar” iPhone app, and shows that Saturday merits only a “three fish” day (out of a possible “four fish”)—based on the moon’s fading illumination. 


May 18 2018

Is Small Cap Leadership Bullish?

  • May 18, 2018

The Russell 2000 closed above its January 26th high on Wednesday, and well beforehand bulls had seized upon the secondary stocks’ leadership as evidence that all is right again with both the U.S. economy and stock market...

Mar 07 2018

Mid-Term Mayhem?

  • Mar 7, 2018

The prospect of a mid-term congressional shake-up may rattle the markets in 2018. Since 1962, nine major bear market lows occurred during mid-term election years, with eight of those happening during the traditionally weak months of May through October.

Nov 07 2017

Stock Market Observations

  • Nov 7, 2017

We remain bullish on stocks but with very limited visibility into 2018.

Aug 05 2017

VLT Goes “Quiet”

  • Aug 5, 2017

Last year’s “low-risk” BUY signals from our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm have proven very profitable, but enough time has elapsed that they should no longer be considered an important bullish factor.

Apr 07 2017

What’s Ailing Small Caps?

  • Apr 7, 2017

While the Russell 2000 loss during the 2015-16 correction was almost double that of the S&P 500, the decline did not fully erase the P/E premium Small Caps have enjoyed since the middle of last decade. The premium might need to be entirely erased before a multi-year Small Cap leadership cycle can begin.

Aug 05 2016

More Upside For Small Caps?

  • Aug 5, 2016

There was a major cyclical BUY signal (VLT Momentum) for the S&P 500 in late-May, and as of July’s close, that bullish development was reinforced by a new VLT BUY signal on the Russell 2000.

Apr 08 2014

A Milestone You Might Have Missed

  • Apr 8, 2014

The fifth anniversary of the bull market was met with fanfare, but the launch of the Large Cap leadership cycle in April 2011 is receiving no attention whatsoever.

Jan 08 2014

Stock Market Leadership In 2014: Large Caps, Tech, Health Care

  • Jan 8, 2014

Following a great year for trend-following, capitalizing on key reversals in sector performance will be important in winning the 2014 performance derby.

Nov 07 2013

How Long Can Small Caps Lead?

  • Nov 7, 2013

The Russell 2000 is about five points ahead of Large Caps YTD, and is approaching its April 2011 long-term relative peak. We view this outperformance as their leadership’s last gasp and not a new cycle.

Jan 05 2011

Large Cap Vs. Small Cap: Performance Parity 1979 To Date

  • Jan 5, 2011

If we look only at the past eleven years, 2000-2010, the S&P 500 has decisively underperformed the Russell 2000.

Sep 03 2008

Small Cap Outperformance: More Questions Than Answers

  • Sep 3, 2008

Small cap out performance so far in 2008 is baffling. Earnings growth has been weak relative to large caps and valuations are still excessive. Interestingly, EAFE Small Cap Index is underperforming, while its U.S. counterparts are doing well.

Jan 05 2008

Small Caps' Stumble Is A Global Affair

  • Jan 5, 2008

Small caps have trailed the S&P 500 performance by 12-15% since peaking out on a relative basis in the spring of 2006. International small caps have broken down even more decisively on a relative basis.

Jan 03 2007

Weighted Versus Unweighted: Inside The S&P 500

  • Jan 3, 2007

In 2006, the capitalization weighted S&P 500 was up 13.6%, excluding dividends. The average return for the 500 stocks (S&P equally weighted) was up 14.2%.

Jan 05 2005

Large Cap Versus Small Cap

  • Jan 5, 2005

Small caps continue to be the market leaders over large caps. This trend is expected to continue into 2005, as our small cap leadership model has recently improved, and is now rated slightly positive.

Jul 04 2004

Royal Blues….Annual Reconstruction

  • Jul 4, 2004

Ten new components inserted into this list of the 99 stocks with the largest institutional ownership. Smallest turnover in four years. Russell also being rebalanced.

Jun 01 2004

Russell 2000 Reconstitution

  • Jun 1, 2004

Based on recommendations from the investment services industry, Russell will shift the final day of its index reconstitution process to the last Friday in June, which is June 25 this year, instead of the last day in June.

Feb 05 2003

Answering Client Questions

  • Feb 5, 2003

Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from January client meetings in Texas.

Jan 05 2003

Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500

  • Jan 5, 2003

Poor performance by large cap technology and nifty fifty type issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers for the past three years.

May 05 2002

Comparing Small Cap Performance Measures

  • May 5, 2002

Small Cap indices performance divergence. Why has the S&P 600 significantly outperformed the Russell 2000 the past two years?

Jan 04 2002

Large Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000

  • Jan 4, 2002

For the third straight year, the Russell outperforms.

Jan 04 2001

Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Inside The S&P 500

  • Jan 4, 2001

Poor performance by Large cap technology issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers in 2000.

Feb 05 2000

Small Cap Divergence...Growth Versus Value

  • Feb 5, 2000

The divergence between Small Cap Growth and Value performance continues to widen. It has been all Growth since August 1998.

May 05 1999

Internet Impact: Russell 2000

  • May 5, 1999

The Russell 2000 currently has an upside warp because of its Internet stock components. Many of these issues are now too big for this small cap measure, but remain in the index until the annual Russell rebalancing on May 31.

Aug 05 1998

Oversupply of Small Cap Orphans?

  • Aug 5, 1998

More than 500 new companies were added to the Russell 2000 at the mid-year index revision. Those issues deleted from the Russell indices become “orphans”.

Jul 04 1998

Big Cap Dominance Warping Performance Measures

  • Jul 4, 1998

Institutions' preference for liquid big caps have made it very difficult for most portfolio managers to keep up with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ year to date.

Jan 07 1998

Big Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000

  • Jan 7, 1998

The following table compares the performance of the Russell 2000 Index since its inception in 1979 with the S&P 500.

Mar 01 1989

More Comment About the Russell 2000

  • Mar 1, 1989

David Burnett from the Russell organization has provided us with additional information on the index, its current construction and how it might be further modified.