Technical
Neutral (But Leaning Negative)
U.S. stocks have either begun one of the most underwhelming and economically illogical bull markets in history, or have staged an exceptionally long and deceptive bear market rally. Our bet is on the latter.
Are You Better Off Than You Were Forty Years Ago?
Old timers will recognize our title as a twist on Ronald Reagan’s clincher in the final 1980 presidential debate with Jimmy Carter.
We recalled Reagan’s line while preparing for today’s 40th anniversary of the great 1982 secular stock-market low. Investors in the S&P 500 have earned an annualized total return of +12.4% since that trough, about two percentage points above the long-term average.
Group Scores Worked Well In 2013, What We Like For 2014
All five factor categories did well, and the best performing Attractive industries came from six different sectors and ranged from traditionally defensive to more cyclical groups.
A Techno-Fundamental Take On The World
At 15.8x Normalized EPS, the non-U.S. developed world (measured by the MSCI World Ex USA Index) still hasn’t managed to recover to its old lows of 18x seen in both 1992 and 2002.
The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”
The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.
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