Research.LeutholdGroup

Multi-cap funds face two paradoxes that introduce subtle hurdles into their fund analytics. While it is desirable for a fund to rely on a sound investment process and to follow that process consistently, a successful multi-cap fund might not be able to meet both desires simultaneously. Second, a successful multi-cap fund will always be compared to the highest performing peer group while unsuccessful funds will be compared to a less successful set of peer funds. Attentive fund analysts can overcome the challenges we have identified in this study, assuming they are cognizant of the unique issues facing multi-cap and mid-cap funds. This report is intended to arm analysts with just such insights to ensure that benchmark and peer group comparisons are meaningful and constructive.

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

The latest CPI report was a tad cooler than consensus. Our scorecard suggests the modest disinflationary regime is likely to persist.

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Value’s migration behavior was the key to its failure between 2010-2020—its pattern got progressively worse, culminating in a Value trap during 2017-2020. We believe macro tailwinds and positive surprises are both needed, and, while the setup on the macro front, post-2020, has become quite favorable, in order to breathe more life into Value we need to see the upswing in earnings surprises continue.

We do think that a September rate cut—the first of many—now looks likely. But the aftermath of any cut might not be what traders are conditioned to expect. Subsequent to the tightening cycles of 1999-2000 and 2006-2007, the initial rate cuts provided timely excuses to dump stocks—as did most of the cuts that followed.

We don’t contend that the 3.3% YoY gain in CPI totally understates today’s inflation rate; however, small measurement errors add up over time. Only a government economist could believe that the CPI’s 21% increase since January 2020 captures the true rise in Americans’ cost of living.

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After a strong period of market leadership following the internet bubble low of 2002, small cap stocks have been a great disappointment since 2016. Despite favorable economic conditions and a generally bullish market tone since the pandemic, small caps have failed to deliver on the hope of outperformance in a risk-on environment.  As tactical investors interested in owning smaller asset classes when conditions are favorable, we are taking a fresh look at small caps, attempting to diagnose what has been ailing this market segment and what might be coming next.

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May’s CPI figures were cooler than expected, breaking a trend of generally hotter than anticipated results. Many inflation data series continue to plateau at rates higher the Fed’s comfort zone.

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While the NASDAQ rebounded sharply from its mini-setback in April, daily 52-week new lows in the index eclipsed new highs several days in late May and early June. It’s rare to see that happen on days when the NASDAQ 100 itself closes at a 52-week high, yet that’s exactly what transpired on May 24th.

The stock market picture at the June 5th SPX high was not as cohesive as that of late March. Just two of our eight bellwethers—Dow Jones Transports and Dow Jones Utilities—had failed to confirm the new market high at the end of March. At the high on June 5th, however, the list of laggards expanded to include the Russell 2000, S&P 500 Cyclical Sector Composite, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index.

With the Mag 7 driving S&P 500 returns on a daily basis, the other 593 stocks have become less correlated with the S&P 500’s day-to-day changes. Although dropping correlations are typically a good thing for active managers, we think this time is different.

Nvidia’s +27% return in May means that this chip company now has a similar market cap and index weight as Microsoft and Apple (NVDA was less than one-fifth the size of AAPL just 18 months ago). In May, Nvidia contributed a little over one-quarter of the S&P 500’s return. For the first five months of 2024, the firm’s 121% gain has subsidized one-third of the index’s YTD performance.

Chinese investors have flocked to gold as traditional investments have massively disappointed. Global central banks are also buying gold amid heightened geopolitical tension. Both trends help explain why gold has defied the gravitational pull of a stronger dollar and higher real yields.

Despite the overwhelming superiority of small cap returns, historically, during the winter months, the last three years have not followed the script. Three consecutive failures of this powerful seasonal influence make us curious if there are other market conditions that may be negatively influencing the smalls.

Today’s eight largest firms produced an average gross margin of 65% over the last fiscal year, a 15-point gain since 1999—and pretax margins are truly amazing. The striking level of profitability at the top of the S&P 500 explains the top-heavy nature of the bull market, and at least partially justifies valuations. 

Q1 bottom-up operating EPS for the S&P 500 sank slightly to $54.94 after the second month of reporting.  However, with reporting for the Index nearly complete, this figure is still 70 cents above the final pre-reporting estimate recorded at the end of March. The fifteen months of Q1 snail trail in Chart 1 shows remarkably consistent estimates, especially given our recent “ski slope” quarters of 2023. EPS estimates, at least in the aggregate, continue to hold up nicely for the other three quarters of 2024 reporting as well.

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Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

The financial performance of Korean companies has retreated to distressingly low levels in recent years. Consider that 67% of KOSPI index members trade at a P/B below 1x, and the median ROE is just 4.9%.  To address the concerns of fading corporate performance, low valuations, and weak stock market returns, the Financial Services Commission joined with the Korean Stock Exchange to announce the “Corporate Value-Up” program in February 2024. The objective is to enhance corporate governance and shareholder accountability and to encourage companies to improve financial performance in the areas of P/B, ROE, ROA and shareholder payouts.

The latest CPI report was boring, but no bad surprise is really good news these days. Our scorecard is currently Neutral and it’s likely on the cusp of turning disinflationary over the next few months.

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One casualty of the U.S. market’s hawkish turn is the Japanese Yen. It certainly grabbed its share of headlines, yet, when viewing the selloff in historical perspective, this year’s uptick looks entirely inconsequential. Additionally, when considering the Yen through the lens of other Asian currencies, its outsized weakness versus the dollar essentially disappears. Dollar strength is the real driver and it has pummeled Asian currencies across the board.

Now at the bull market’s one-and-a-half-year mark, it’s notable that every major stock index has trailed the average path for a new bull market at this point in a cycle. But, it’s unfair to liken today’s bull with past bulls, because it has a unique adverse trait that is apt to be life-shortening: It arose during an economic expansion—and likely in the latter stages, considering the unemployment rate was 3.5%.

Despite our reservations about the durability of the expansion, we have to respect what it has overcome: interest-rate hikes of 425 bps; a nearly 2-year runoff in the Fed’s balance sheet (QT); and a 9-month bear market that began before the expansion reached its 2-year milestone. Even consumer “expectations,” which track the market higher in the early phase of a bull market, never rebounded and are lower now than at the fall-2022 market low.

Despite a hostile setting for active management in Q1, six of nine style boxes in our ongoing analysis achieved active-fund win rates above 50% (60% on average bested their passive benchmark). The other three each scored just below 50% of active strategies beating passive. This is remarkable given the proven importance of market conditions in the active/passive performance derby.

Two of the most intriguing storylines across global markets in recent years concern Asian economies. The Japanese stock market provided the upside surprise, gaining a remarkable 64% in local currency terms since the end of 2020, making it one of the world’s top performers. On the flipside, South Korea ended April with a cumulative loss over the last three-plus years.

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Q1 bottom-up S&P 500 operating EPS estimates jumped a little over a dollar to $55.36 after the first month of reporting. This halted the usual “slow-erosion” pattern that shaved $3 off the quarter’s estimate since last summer (Chart 1). The three forward quarters of 2024 also experienced a bump in estimates. S&P 500 full-year EPS projections now sit at $242. That would be a 13% YOY gain from 2023’s results.

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Our March report titled Lifeboat Drill examined the effectiveness of sectors, styles, and factors in protecting investors during major market declines. We found that Consumer Staples are significant and consistent outperformers during times of distress, serving as “comfort food” for investors trying to minimize their financial and emotional distress in a falling market.  Staples are relatively inexpensive today based on market-relative metrics, and today’s level of cheapness has historically corresponded to positive relative returns going forward.

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CPI readings were a touch above estimates again in March. The actual data surprises are not nearly as dramatic as the market reactions, which have been almost entirely driven by sentiment swings.

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