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DJIA

Nov 07 2018

BAA Acting Baaaadly!

  • Nov 7, 2018

Whether or not they’ve risen for the “right” reasons remains up for debate, but the upward move in interest rates has hit the usual suspects very hard in 2018, like early-cycle industries and Emerging Markets.

Jun 07 2018

A Smart-Money Split

  • Jun 7, 2018

The Supply/Demand category carries the smallest weighting among the five factor groupings in the Major Trend Index, and this weighting is further diminished by the fact that its components rarely line up in a way which loudly proclaims that an  “accumulation” or a “distribution” phase is underway. Today is just another of those typically inconclusive times.

May 05 2018

The Market Told You So

  • May 5, 2018

First quarter profits have been terrific, and this quarter’s will be too. Enjoy them, but remember that the market “paid” you for them many months ago. Don’t submit another invoice…

Apr 06 2018

This Is A Head-Scratcher

  • Apr 6, 2018

The longest and probably most complex bull market in history is not going to make a clean and decisive exit.

Mar 07 2018

Happy 9th Birthday To An “Off-The-Charts” Bull!

  • Mar 7, 2018

Last fall’s market rally drove the DJIA off (literally) our 1900-Present Bull Market chart. Within a year, this bull jumped two spots to #3 in the all-time rankings dating back to 1900.

Oct 20 2017

The Smart Money Sleeps In

  • Oct 20, 2017

From a purely technical perspective, the bull market has hardly been lacking for feathers in its cap. Yet it earned another one on Tuesday when the DJIA Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI) broke out to a new bull market high (Chart 1), erasing a “non-confirmation” that had stood since March 1st. This index thereby joins the broad list of market bellwethers—chronicled in the last Green Book—that have participated in the parade of new highs.

 

Oct 06 2017

Breaking The Pattern?

  • Oct 6, 2017

The Chicago Cubs’ break of the 75-year Billy Goat Curse last year might have warned us of the dangers inherent in historical pattern analysis.

Aug 05 2017

Troubling Transports?

  • Aug 5, 2017

Does the last few weeks’ stumble in the Dow Jones Transportation Average foretell anything sinister? Not on the face of it.

Mar 07 2017

A Subdued 8th Birthday Celebration

  • Mar 7, 2017

The hoopla falls short of that which surrounded birthdays #3-#7; based on the flood of assets into passive stock funds, it appears complacency has set in. Current bull close to becoming longest in history.

Sep 08 2016

A Semi-Annual Checkup!

  • Sep 8, 2016

Call off the mortician, and bring on the pediatrician for the bull market’s 7 1/2-year checkup this month.

Jun 07 2016

What Is The Bond Market Telling Us?

  • Jun 7, 2016

We’re tactically bullish, but among the twelve “Charts That Worry Us” published in the April Green Book, we’ll concede there are a few that still worry us.

Jul 08 2015

A Venerable Monetary Indicator Turned Negative

  • Jul 8, 2015

The smoothed, 26-week rate-of-change in the DJ Corporate Bond Index, a reliable indicator of monetary conditions over many different market and economic cycles, turned negative in mid-June.

Apr 08 2014

U.S. Markets See Uniform Strength, While The World Seems Fractured

  • Apr 8, 2014

Based on the historical percentages, the bull market should have a minimum of four to six months of life left. But the market has a way of throwing sand in the gears when you think you’ve begun to understand its internal mechanics.

Mar 07 2014

Stock Market Observations

  • Mar 7, 2014

With our equity exposure high and our disciplines still tilting bullish, we’re naturally more concerned with what might go wrong than missing out on some kind of 2013 repeat.

Mar 07 2014

Bulling Through The History Books

  • Mar 7, 2014

The Dow Jones Industrials’ bull market gain of +150% is well ahead of the long-term median (+86%) and average (+134%), and places the 2009-to-date move as the sixth-best all time.

Sep 10 2013

Market Internals: The Good And The Bad

  • Sep 10, 2013

Leadership isn’t warning of impending weakness in either the U.S. economy or the stock market. Market breadth, on the other hand, is highlighting risks that aren’t evident when inspecting leadership alone.

May 04 2012

The Bigger The Bear, The Better The Bull?

  • May 4, 2012

Does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?

 

Oct 05 2011

Bear Market Facts—A Refresher

  • Oct 5, 2011

This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the bear market facts. Doug Ramsey doesn’t expect the current bear market to reach historical bear market medians in terms of decline or duration. Non-economic bear markets are usually much shorter than recession-induced bears.

 

Oct 05 2011

Worse Than It Looks… And Not Over

  • Oct 5, 2011

Most costly market decoy in the last six weeks has been unusual (relative) strength of the Dow and S&P 500 indexes. Resilience in blue chips is characteristic of the early and middle phases of a bear market, but recent blue chip performance has been so stellar (again, in a relative sense) that most investors curled up comfortably in the “correction” camp…while small caps, cyclicals and virtually all foreign markets were screaming “BEAR!”

 

Aug 04 2011

The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”

  • Aug 4, 2011

The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.

 

May 04 2011

Dow Performance: A Matter Of Weighting...

  • May 4, 2011

Are the Dow Industrials benefiting from trivial weighting? Slicing our Leuthold 3000 universe into market cap deciles shows different performance results than commonly followed market indices.

 

Dec 04 2010

It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”

  • Dec 4, 2010

The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.

 

 

Feb 04 2009

Is There Trouble In The Transports?

  • Feb 4, 2009

The new low in the Dow Jones Transports is a bullish portent, but only if the Dow Jones Industrials can hold above their November low.

Jan 04 2009

Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"

  • Jan 4, 2009

Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.

Dec 02 2008

Bear Market Epitaph?

  • Dec 2, 2008

While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.

Oct 05 2008

Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"

  • Oct 5, 2008

Dow Theorists looking at current market environment may be concluding stocks could weaken further. However, historically when confirmation from the Transports takes an excessively long time to develop (like it has currently), the technical pattern has actually provided an excellent buy signal.

 

Jun 03 2008

Changes In The Capital Gains Tax Rate Vs. Stock Market Performance

  • Jun 3, 2008

Prospects for increase to capital gains tax caused us to examine the historical impact such changes have on stock market performance, 1917 to date.  The record is not very encouraging.

Jan 05 2008

Dow Double Trouble

  • Jan 5, 2008

Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market? 

Mar 05 2007

Breadth & Leadership: Bull Markets Rarely (S)Top On A Dime

  • Mar 5, 2007

Market breadth moved down in tandem with stock market indices, but is not showing any divergences. All advance/decline lines were making new highs just before the downturn, and bull markets do not end with advance/decline data posting new highs.

Sep 05 2006

Transportation Stocks As Economic Warning Signal

  • Sep 5, 2006

Six of eight recessions since 1957 saw signals registered by the Transportation Divergence monitor. Recent divergence may be warning of an impending economic contraction.

Dec 04 2002

Steve The Technician

  • Dec 4, 2002

Last month, we had a request for technical readings on the major market indices. Being a long time card carrying member of the Market Technicians Association, I decided I should oblige.

Aug 04 2001

View From The North Country

  • Aug 4, 2001

Full Disclosure (Reg FD), Investment Banking conflicts (hardly a recent development) and the Nikkei and DJIA: Will they cross this year?

Nov 04 1999

The Dow Jones Industrial Index...Before and After

  • Nov 4, 1999

Dow Jones gets a Tech infusion. Still not up to S&P 500 Tech weight.

Jun 02 1999

The Mixed Month Of May

  • Jun 2, 1999

The S&P 500 eased 2.5% in May, while measures of smaller cap stocks edged up 1% to 2%. Major Trend Index has shifted to negative status. Dow Jones 40,000?

Apr 04 1999

First Quarter 1999: Only Indexers And Internet Players Liked It

  • Apr 4, 1999

S&P 500’s cap weighted 5% Q1 return overwhelmed most active manager’s returns.

Feb 04 1998

The Mixed Messages Of January

  • Feb 4, 1998

It was a shaky 1998 start, but the U.S. equity markets got it together after the big hit on January 9th (-3%).

Jan 07 1998

Was 1987 Really An "Up" Year For Stocks?

  • Jan 7, 1998

1987 closed with a pretty good rally, a rally extending into early January 1988.

Apr 05 1997

DJIA Economic Sector Weightings…A Different Perspective

  • Apr 5, 1997

The four March changes in DJIA components shifted sector weightings for the index, most significantly in Energy, Financial, Healthcare and Technology.

Jan 04 1997

Early 1997: The Stock Market Looks Higher

  • Jan 4, 1997

December's stock market was a mixed up affair, but this is not unusual for December.

Feb 04 1995

Worth Noting

  • Feb 4, 1995

Three steps and stumble, four steps and fall down?