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Federal Debt/Deficit

Sep 19 2018

Real Rates and the Federal Deficit

  • Sep 19, 2018

The real short-term interest rate shows how inappropriately-loose monetary policy has remained in the face of a steady economic expansion.

Sep 08 2018

Real Rates And The Federal Deficit

  • Sep 8, 2018

We previously mentioned the increasing focus on the real short-term interest rate as an important measure of the Fed’s policy stance. In truth, we wish the Fed had paid more attention to this measure during this cycle.

Sep 08 2017

Don’t Look Now, But...

  • Sep 8, 2017

We recognize it’s uncultured to discuss federal debt and deficits during a multi-year bull market, but in economics and investing it frequently pays to worry when others don’t, and to stop worrying when others do.

Dec 07 2016

Policymakers’ Shell Game

  • Dec 7, 2016

We considered the launch of the QE tapering program in January 2014 as the formal onset of the Fed’s tightening campaign, and that view seemed to be on the mark when High Yield bonds, and then stocks,  unraveled over the next couple of years—although the final losses in the DJIA and  S&P 500 fell short of what we expected.

Jul 05 2011

“Just Another” Soft Patch

  • Jul 5, 2011

MTI studies of market values, investor psychology and price action have (so far) overwhelmed the economic “elephants in the room.” A few thoughts on those elephants.

 

Jul 05 2011

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Jul 5, 2011

$4.8 trillion of the additional $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to incur over the next decade is interest obligation.

Jun 05 2011

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Jun 5, 2011

More than one-half of the U.S. government’s additional $9 trillion in debt expected over the next ten years is projected to be interest. This is a frightening proposition.

 

Feb 04 2011

The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is The Cheap Money Era Ending?

  • Feb 4, 2011

The bond bubble is deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.

 

Jan 05 2011

The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is The Cheap Money Era Ending?

  • Jan 5, 2011

We raised most of our twelve month yield targets this month, based on higher inflation expectations and U.S. debt concerns. Extremely low yields at the short end of the curve are the result of a stimulative Fed policy. Rising yields at the long end of the curve reflect rising inflation expectations.

 

 

Dec 04 2010

Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?

  • Dec 4, 2010

The bond bubble could be deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.

 

Nov 04 2010

Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?

  • Nov 4, 2010

Bond bubble continues to inflate, much like money pouring into tech stocks at the height of the internet bubble.

Oct 05 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Oct 5, 2010

The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt. Unless the U.S. can get its own fiscal act together, we may face this same panic reaction farther down the road.

 

 

 

Sep 03 2010

Are We In A Bond Bubble?

  • Sep 3, 2010

Bond bubble continues to inflate, much like money pouring into tech stocks at the height of the internet bubble.

Aug 03 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Aug 3, 2010

The kneejerk reaction to worries about excessive sovereign debt has been to bail out of the European sovereign debt and pile into U.S. sovereign debt.

Jul 06 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Jul 6, 2010

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles.

Jun 03 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Jun 3, 2010

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.

 

May 04 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • May 4, 2010

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.

 

Apr 05 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Apr 5, 2010

A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.

 

Mar 02 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Mar 2, 2010

We continue to have longer term concerns about U.S. debt and deficit. The mountain of debt is building and interest expense rising.

 

Feb 02 2010

Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit

  • Feb 2, 2010

Jim Floyd’s analysis of the interest costs facing the U.S. due to the soaring budget deficits.

Mar 04 2009

Fall Into Deflationary Territory Should Be Short Lived

  • Mar 4, 2009

Compared against very deflationary readings in the second half of 2008, PPI could finish 2009 up +2.0%. The worst of the commodity price downdraft should be behind us.

 

Feb 04 2009

Decline Into Deflationary Territory Could Be Short Lived

  • Feb 4, 2009

2008 was a deflationary year for the PPI (–1.2%). 2001 was the last calendar year with deflation (-1.8%), and it was also a recession year.

 

Jan 04 2009

Recent CPI and PPI Readings Declined By Largest Percentages In Over 60 Years

  • Jan 4, 2009

Currently declining energy and other commodity prices are producing some significant “down” months for CPI and PPI.

Dec 02 2008

Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating

  • Dec 2, 2008

The consumer is in the worst shape that we can remember. September job loss was the highest in five years.

Nov 05 2008

Outlook: Weak Economy, Inflation Decelerating

  • Nov 5, 2008

Revised Q4 real GDP confirms what we’ve been saying for quite some time...the U.S. economy began contracting in Q4 2007.

May 06 2008

Inflation Understated Not Overstated

  • May 6, 2008

There is political pressure to keep inflation low, minimizing COLA (cost of living adjustments) and Social Security costs. Low inflation also helps to keep interest rates down, which keeps government interest payments as low as possible.

Apr 05 2008

Current Stock Market Strategy

  • Apr 5, 2008

Market has so far performed pretty much as expected. Major Trend still Negative, but recent improvement is surprising. Bear market could be winding down.

 

Apr 05 2008

Deficit Watch...Outlook Worsening

  • Apr 5, 2008

The U.S. economy is slowing and probably fell into recession in Q4 2007

Mar 05 2008

Worth Noting???

  • Mar 5, 2008

What follows are my personal observations and opinions. I am an anti-inflation fiscal conservative and I know some would add “curmudgeon” to this description.

Mar 05 2008

Jobs/Consumer Data Flashing Recessionary Signals

  • Mar 5, 2008

Optimists have continuously cited low unemployment and the ever resilient U.S. consumer as two “pillars of strength” that will help keep the economy afloat. It has become considerably more difficult to make this case in recent months, as jobs and spending data have weakened to levels associated with recessions.

 

Feb 05 2008

U.S. Economy Skirts Recession In Q4, Or Does It?

  • Feb 5, 2008

It now appears that the downward bias in inflationary pressures suggested by the CPI data is tame compared to the GDP Deflator. And if this is true, investors may be operating under a false sense of security  that economic growth remains positive (albeit ever so slight).

Jan 05 2008

2008: Less Than Great

  • Jan 5, 2008

Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.

Jan 05 2008

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure Now Well Above Fed’s Preferred Range

  • Jan 5, 2008

The notion of a core rate of inflation (excluding Food and Energy) seems to be fading away—finally!

Dec 05 2007

2007 Outlook

  • Dec 5, 2007

CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008

Nov 05 2007

2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008

  • Nov 5, 2007

Expect economy to slow the remainder of 2007 as a result of slower consumer and business spending, as well as housing and auto woes. A 2008 recession is now a stronger possibility. 

Oct 03 2007

CPI “Housing” Cooling Off

  • Oct 3, 2007

One development that is currently dampening rent hikes is the increasing conversion of condo units to rental units, increasing the overall supply of rentals.

Sep 05 2007

2007 Outlook: CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Recession In 2008?

  • Sep 5, 2007

Expect economy to slow the remainder of 2007, as a result of slower consumer spending as well as housing and auto woes. A 2008 recession is now a strong possibility. 

Aug 05 2007

2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Second Half, Economy Creeping Along, Recession In 2008?

  • Aug 5, 2007

Bond market targets were increased in July, based on rising global rates, strong global economy and expected inflation acceleration.

Jul 04 2007

View From The North Country

  • Jul 4, 2007

2007 half time report. Revisiting our original 2007 projections with some current modifications. Outlook for stock market, interest rates, inflation, profits, economy, the deficits, the U.S. dollar and gold.

 

Jul 04 2007

2007 OUTLOOK: CPI Accelerating In Q4, Economy Creeping Along, But Expect Recession In 2008?

  • Jul 4, 2007

Expect economic expansion to pick up a bit after weak first quarter, but a 2008 recession is a possibility.