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Financials

Jul 03 2019

Sector Rankings

  • Jul 3, 2019

The top-three-rated sectors are Communication Services, Financials, and Real Estate.

Jul 03 2019

Financials Strengthen Among GS Scores; Specialized Finance Purchased

  • Jul 3, 2019

The Financials’ Group Selection (GS) Score sector-composite rating has incrementally improved over the past five months, rising to rank #2 out of 11 sectors in late June.

Jun 07 2019

Sector Rankings

  • Jun 7, 2019

The top-three-rated sectors are Information Technology, Real Estate, and Financials.

May 06 2019

Signs Of Spring For Financials

  • May 6, 2019

Signs of spring are popping up everywhere in the Financials sector. S&P Financials was easily the top- performing sector in April and several sub-industries have been bubbling higher in our Group Selection discipline.

Aug 05 2017

The Investment Merits Of Asset Management Companies

  • Aug 5, 2017

Industry trends and the investment merits of companies involved in the asset management business; we contrast ETF providers with firms involved in traditional active management.

Mar 07 2017

Financials Remain Atop Sector Rankings

  • Mar 7, 2017

Our Financials Sector Ranking has been strengthening since August—well before the Trump Bump. The addition of Regional Banks to our SI Portfolio boosts our Financials exposure to an overweight 26% versus the S&P 500’s 15% weight. Reinsurance and Developed Diversified Banks are also among the Attractively-rated options for diversification within the sector.

Dec 07 2016

Financials With Post-Election Appeal

  • Dec 7, 2016

Forces specifically driving many Financials groups include expectations for an ongoing yield rally and a steepening yield curve, tax cuts, and loosening financial regulation. While these outcomes remain largely speculation, the odds have improved and any of these developments would be a welcome change.

Nov 11 2016

Financials: "Thrice Blessed"

  • Nov 11, 2016

The S&P 500 Financials’ four-day, 11% rally has carried the sector to a new bull market high and the best closing level since May 6, 2008. The new high eliminates one of the long-term negative divergences from the Red Flag Indicator discussed periodically in the Green Book. Another longtime “Red Flag,” the Dow Jones 65 Composite, closed yesterday only fractionally below its December 29, 2014, all-time high. This is good action.

 

Oct 07 2016

Financials: All’s Well If You Don’t Look Far

  • Oct 7, 2016

So long as one maintains a “nationalistic” perspective, Financial sector indicators support a bullish view toward both the economy and stock market.

Jun 07 2016

Stock Market Observations

  • Jun 7, 2016

Commentators now label this cyclical advance the “seven-year bull market,” but that won’t be semantically true until the S&P 500 closes above its May 2015 peak of 2130.82.

Apr 07 2016

Strength + Weakness = Weakness?

  • Apr 7, 2016

We like to think our models and indicators help us preserve a high degree of market objectivity. But sometimes we wonder: the latest rally has progressed to the point where we see trouble afoot in both the strongest and weakest charts we can find.

Feb 05 2016

Info Tech, Financials, Health Care—Remain Top Three Rated Sectors

  • Feb 5, 2016

Among the bottom ranked sectors are Utilities, Materials, Energy, and Telecom Services. These four sectors have been the bottom four rated sectors for a minimum of eight months.

Jan 08 2016

Cheapest Sector Strategy

  • Jan 8, 2016

We recognize that—regardless of their empirical appeal—momentum-oriented approaches aren’t suitable for every investor. For those investors, we’ve identified an alternative sector allocation strategy that’s delivered long-term results almost identical to those of the Bridesmaid approach, but which is based on a single, simple selection criterion that should appeal to the most hard-wired contrarian: The Low P/E.

Aug 07 2015

GS Score Sector Rankings, and Highlighted Attractive Groups

  • Aug 7, 2015

Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are the top three rated broad sectors.

Apr 08 2015

Charts That Challenge Us…

  • Apr 8, 2015

While our disciplines continue to turn up enough bullish evidence to keep us cautiously positive toward stocks, we are seeing troubling signs by cyclicals (especially the Transports) and junk bonds.

Mar 06 2015

New Laggards On The Radar Screen

  • Mar 6, 2015

Transports now find themselves in a three-month RS downtrend; it’s too early to tell if this is an important message. Leading up to 14 of the last 16 bull market tops, Transports underperformed for a six to 12-month period prior to the final bull market high.

Mar 06 2015

NASDAQ Now, Financials Next?

  • Mar 6, 2015

We wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 Financials require a recovery period just as long as NASDAQ's.

Nov 07 2014

Electronic Payment Industry: The Mobile Pay Players

  • Nov 7, 2014

On October 20th, Apple Pay was officially launched in the U.S. with great fanfare. Since the launch, we’ve heard a lot of buzz words such as “disruptive,” and “transformation,” and then “million users signed up within the first three days.” Amid this enthusiasm came the bad news that some retailers, including Rite Aid and CVS, disabled Apple Pay at their POS’ and reports broke that a retailer consortium was developing a rival payment system.

Apr 07 2014

Profit Margins At The Sector Level

  • Apr 7, 2014

All ten of the S&P 500 sectors recorded a sequential increase in four-quarter trailing net profit margins. But consider where sector margins stand today relative to their 25-year medians. Eight of ten S&P 500 sectors are recording profit margins well above their long-term medians.

Jan 08 2014

GS Scores in 2014

  • Jan 8, 2014

Looking forward, groups from the Information Technology, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors look appealing.

Dec 06 2013

2013 Factor Performance: What Worked? What Will Keep Working?

  • Dec 6, 2013

Momentum and Value worked in 2013. Materials and Financials were the easiest sectors to exploit; Discretionary and Tech the most difficult. Momentum works in December; Value and Small Caps at the start of the year.

Oct 08 2013

Group Models: Info Tech Tops Domestic, Financials Remain Atop Global

  • Oct 8, 2013

Both models have numerous Information Technology and Financials groups in Attractive territory. Neither model has any Unattractive Tech groups. Alternatively, neither model has any Attractive Utilities groups, while several Utilities rate Unattractive in each.

Oct 08 2013

Playing The Bounce - With A Twist

  • Oct 8, 2013

The historical batting average of this strategy has been decent, with gains in 9 of 18 years along with “excess” returns over the S&P 500 in 10 of 18 years. The best Bounce seasons have occurred when the market was either down for the year through September, or up only modestly.

Sep 10 2013

Group Models: Info Tech Tops Domestic, Financials Tops Global

  • Sep 10, 2013

Both models (particularly domestic) have a number of Attractive rated Information Technology groups and no Unattractive rated Tech groups. Financials’ domination of the Global Attractive range continues.

Sep 10 2013

Sector Margins: Just Thank The Consumer

  • Sep 10, 2013

We’ve noted before that profit margin gains since the technology boom have been primarily a Large Cap phenomenon.

Aug 07 2013

Key Observations On Q2 S&P 1500 Earnings

  • Aug 7, 2013

Year-over-year EPS growth rate for companies with Q2 reports (with about 65% in) currently stands at +4.2%, while revenue growth has come in at a better than expected +2.6%.

Aug 06 2013

Group Models Agree On Energy & Materials

  • Aug 6, 2013

But Information Technology rises to the top of the Domestic model, while the trend of Financials domination in the Global model remains intact.

Jul 12 2013

Domestic and Global Group Models: Strong Agreement On Financials

  • Jul 12, 2013

Our Domestic Scores have five Financials groups rating Attractive; these same five industry groups are Attractive in our Global model. In total, seven Financials groups rank Attractive in the Global model, with insurance groups looking particularly Attractive.

Jun 06 2013

Domestic and Global Group Models: Agreement On Financials, Industrials

  • Jun 6, 2013

DOMESTIC GS SCORES: Among the sector rankings, Consumer Discretionary leapt from fourth to first this month. Information Technology climbed to second from third, while Consumer Staples was bumped from first to third place.

GLOBAL GS SCORES: Financials’ domination of the Attractive groups continues, and no groups rate Unattractive. Consumer Staples, Energy, and Health Care have no Attractive groups.

May 04 2011

Markets (Mostly) In Gear

  • May 4, 2011

Market in gear, with almost all market indices hitting new highs in tandem. Would be unusual for a market correction with this type of uniformity.

 

Sep 04 2009

Thoughts On Long-Term Leadership

  • Sep 4, 2009

Bubble groups rarely return as market leaders until after experiencing a prolonged trading range pattern. Technology currently appears to have paid its dues and could develop into the next market leader.

Aug 05 2009

Cross-Currents In The Financials Sector

  • Aug 5, 2009

Eric Bjorgen takes an expanded look at some fundamentals surrounding the Financial sector. While bank failures are rising, prior history shows that good performance can still be produced in this environment.

Jul 03 2009

Second Helpings… Will There Be Leftovers After Financials Leave The Table?

  • Jul 3, 2009

We have maintained that the mere fact that the Financials sector has been successful in raising capital via new equity issuance in the stock market is a good sign that the system is stabilizing. The aftermarket support for these deals indicates a healthy secondary market, and furthermore, points to the presence of ample stock market liquidity.

Sep 03 2008

Context For Today's Financial Mess

  • Sep 3, 2008

Think we’ve never seen such turmoil in the financial sector? Back in 1986-1995, the S&L crisis wiped out about half of the federally insured thrifts (from 3234 to 1645).

Jul 04 2008

Financials: Initial Target Satisfied....Now What?

  • Jul 4, 2008

In our equity portfolios we have avoided much of the Financial sector’s collapse, but unfortunately suffered a hit on the Regional Bank stocks over the past two months. The group faded to Neutral in our GS Scores this month and has been deactivated.

Jun 03 2008

Financials Dragging Down Earnings Even On A 3000 Company Median Basis

  • Jun 3, 2008

With or without Financials, earnings momentum has been gradually deteriorating over the past two years as sales growth slowed and margins have been pressured.

 

Apr 05 2008

Bottom Fishing The Regional Banks

  • Apr 5, 2008

GS Scores in April put Regional Banks in Attractive zone for the first time since October 2006. Valuations show the Regional Banks to be relatively cheap, and Insiders are buying.

 

Jan 05 2008

Financials: How Low Could They Go?

  • Jan 5, 2008

Expect more downside for Financials, based on the sector’s percentage of S&P 500 market cap, as well as percentage of earnings. An S&P Financial sector weight of 15% may mark the bottom.

Dec 05 2007

Financials Sector – Comparison To S&L Crisis Paints A Bleak Picture Of What Could Lie Ahead

  • Dec 5, 2007

Performance of today’s Financial sector is somewhat tracking the performance during the S&L crisis. Paints bleak picture of what may lie ahead.

Mar 05 2006

What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Imply For The Financials?

  • Mar 5, 2006

Conventional wisdom states that inverted yield curves are bad for Financial groups. Doug Ramsey looks at the history of past inversions.