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Sectors

Jan 08 2019

Bridesmaid Strategy - Sectors

  • Jan 8, 2019

Our analysis of the Bridesmaid effect originated in 2006, but was based on S&P 500 sectors rather than asset classes.

Jan 08 2019

Sector Rankings

  • Jan 8, 2019

The top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, with Information Technology dropping from the top-three. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings, for the second consecutive month, are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

 

Dec 21 2018

Market Observations

  • Dec 21, 2018

It’s been one of the worst years on record for diversification, with our hypothetical All Asset No Authority (AANA) portfolio down 7.2% YTD through yesterday. That’s the second-worst year for AANA since 1972, and there’s probably not enough time left for performance to undercut 2008 (-24.9%) for the bottom spot.

 

Dec 07 2018

Sector Rankings

  • Dec 7, 2018

For the sixth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

 

Nov 07 2018

Leuthold Sector Rankings; Attractive & Unattractive-Rated Industry Groups

  • Nov 7, 2018

For the fifth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. The newly launched Communication Services sector (which replaces Telecom Services) debuts with a strong ranking in fourth place. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Utilities, Materials, and Real Estate.

Oct 05 2018

Research Preview: Sector-Adjusted Factor Returns

  • Oct 5, 2018

This article summarizes our current research into the interaction between factors and sectors. We find that sector weights have a significant influence on some factor results, while the true factor impact is the key driver for others. Watch for our full report coming next week.

Oct 05 2018

Sector Ranking

  • Oct 5, 2018

Health Care remains the highest-rated sector followed by Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary. These sectors have ranked among the top three since June. At the low end of the rankings are Utilities, Telecom Services, and Materials, all of which have been among the bottom three positions for three consecutive months.

Sep 07 2018
Aug 07 2018

Sector Rankings

  • Aug 7, 2018

Following a seven-month stint as the highest-rated sector overall, Consumer Discretionary relinquished the throne to Health Care.

Jul 07 2018

GS Score Sector Rankings With Attractive & Unattractive Rated Industry Groups

  • Jul 7, 2018

Consumer Discretionary can’t be topped; it has held on to the highest-rated spot for seven consecutive months. Utilities and Telecom continue to close out the bottom two. 

Jun 07 2018

Sector Rankings

  • Jun 7, 2018

Consumer Discretionary has held on to the highest-rated spot for six consecutive months. Coming in last (again) is Utilities. After rating among the lowest two positions between April 2017 and April 2018, Energy finally improved and now sits in 6th place—the middle of the pack.

Mar 08 2018

The Ups and Downs of 2018

  • Mar 8, 2018

Ten weeks into 2018, we have already seen three mini-cycles in U.S. equities. A rip-roaring surge in January was followed in early February by one of the shortest corrections in history...

Jan 06 2018

Bridesmaid Strategy: Sector Track Record

  • Jan 6, 2018

Table 3 shows annual performance results for the Bridesmaid sector strategy under all four rebalancing frequencies, along with the sector selection for the annual version of the strategy.

Dec 07 2017

Sector Rotation: Momentum Versus Valuation Factor

  • Dec 7, 2017

For sector overweight/underweight decisions, applying a Momentum overweight with both EM and DM countries has been most successful.

Dec 07 2017

The Many Faces Of Mo

  • Dec 7, 2017

Momentum is one of the most widely accepted alpha-generating factors, used by quantitative and fundamental managers alike. Its biggest drawback, however, is high turnover. Herein we explore momentum from the perspective of sector weights.

Sep 08 2017

Sector Margin Checkup

  • Sep 8, 2017

U.S. companies hoping for a reduction in the corporate tax rate are not exactly doing a convincing job of demonstrating “need.”

May 05 2017

Sector Profit Margins: A Long-Term Review

  • May 5, 2017

Despite real GDP growth of just 1.6% in 2016, the median S&P 500 company earned a net profit margin of 9.7%, only 40 basis points below the record high established in 2014.

Jan 07 2017

Bridesmaid Sector Track Record

  • Jan 7, 2017

Table 4 shows the annual sector selection and accompanying performance results for the Bridesmaid approach dating back to 1991.

Jan 07 2017

January’s GS Score Sector Rankings

  • Jan 7, 2017

A summary table detailing the Attractive and Unattractive sectors and industry groups going into 2017.

Jan 07 2017

Sectors And Industry Groups On Our Radar

  • Jan 7, 2017

A look at various dynamics affecting sector results in 2016, and what we like going into 2017, both at the sector level and among groups.

Nov 05 2016

Earnings-Release Price Movement Among Sectors/Industries

  • Nov 5, 2016

Earnings season is not only important for fundamental investors, it can be equally so for quant managers. For quants that incorporate fundamental data, like us, historical trends and changes in consensus estimates may weigh heavily on model output.

Nov 05 2016

Can Companies Sustain Cash Payouts?

  • Nov 5, 2016

Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Counting dividend payouts and outstanding share repurchases, the amount of cash returned back to investors crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in January 2016 (based on trailing twelve-months’ total for the largest 500 companies, Chart 1).

Jan 08 2016

Bridesmaid Sector Strategy

  • Jan 8, 2016

Our original research on price momentum dates back to the late 1960s, and was based not on asset classes but on equity sectors and industry groups. We stumbled upon the Bridesmaid effect, in fact, while testing a handful of simple strategies about a decade ago.

Apr 08 2015

Profit Margins At The Sector Level

  • Apr 8, 2015

A look at profitability trends at the broad sector level; only Utilities and Telecom Services are experiencing levels below their long-term medians.

Feb 06 2015

2015 Leadership: An Early Take

  • Feb 6, 2015

Last year’s economically defensive winners held their grip on stock market leadership in January. This action is consistent with our view that the bull market is an aged, overvalued one that has begun a final “distribution” process that will eventually erupt into a cyclical bear.

Dec 05 2014

Sector Margin Trends

  • Dec 5, 2014

The S&P 500 record median profit margin of 10.3% is now almost a full percentage point above the last cycle’s peak of 9.4% (second quarter of 2007). Trends across S&P sectors are not as uniform as one might expect, though, with only half of the ten sectors last quarter at profitability levels that exceeded their 2001-2007 expansion highs.

Dec 05 2014

Quantitative Factor Performance: What Is Working?

  • Dec 5, 2014

Six of the seven factor categories we track have turned in positive performance so far in 2014; Value is the exception. Lost in the numbers is that most of the value has come from the short quintiles, so it has been hard for managers to take advantage of this trend.

Oct 07 2014

Sectors: Where To Hide?

  • Oct 7, 2014

Much like the blue-chip indexes themselves, the cap-weighted S&P 500 sector indexes generally resisted the market mayhem erupting beneath the surface in September.

Apr 08 2014

High Quality Stock Rally Cut Short

  • Apr 8, 2014

In December, we declared the market was likely entering into a cycle where High Quality stocks would shine. Unfortunately, market action since then reminds us of the virtue of being humble.

Apr 07 2014

Sector Characteristics of the S&P Indicies

  • Apr 7, 2014

Important characteristics of the broad sectors of the S&P 500 along with the S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indices.

Aug 06 2013

Sector Performance and Beta Comparisons

  • Aug 6, 2013

There are some substantial deviations in sector performance depending on your constituents and weighting scheme while, simultaneously, betas are converging toward one another.

May 01 2013

Disentangling Industry & Country Effects In A Global Equity Portfolio

  • May 1, 2013

Each of these effects has diminished in importance over time, but it’s still worth taking a look. Momentum is best at capturing the Industry effect, while Valuation works best at the Country level.

Nov 06 2012

Correlations: Digging Deeper At The Sector & Group Levels

  • Nov 6, 2012

Correlations have been extremely elevated over the past few years when compared to historical levels. The question is, which parts of the market has this impacted the most?

Oct 04 2012

Market Dynamics: 2012 Sector Performance; Leverage Pays

  • Oct 4, 2012

In our framework, Health Care is the number one performer year-to-date by almost five percentage points.

 

Aug 07 2012

A Look At Thematic And Sector Valuations

  • Aug 7, 2012

Health Care and Consumer Staples valuations don’t look as dangerous as widely assumed. Utilities look expensive; conversely, the big corrections in the Industrials and Materials sectors have yet to create truly compelling valuations. The best sector for contrarians is Energy.

May 04 2012

"Sell In May"...Without Actually Selling

  • May 4, 2012

A look at how to “Sell in May” without actually selling.

 

Apr 04 2012

Effective Momentum Driven Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets

  • Apr 4, 2012

Momentum has proven to be an effective factor in emerging market sector rotation strategies. Even better than in U.S. markets.

 

Jan 05 2012

Buy Prior Year’s Winner, Loser, or Runner-Up?

  • Jan 5, 2012

The best strategy has been to buy not the prior year’s top performing sector or asset class, but to buy the runners-up—or “Bridesmaids”— of the prior year.

Sep 04 2011

Sector Level Profit Margins: Q2 Update

  • Sep 4, 2011

An examination of both near term and longer term historical profit margins broken out by sectors is presented in this month’s “Of Special Interest” section.

 

Aug 04 2011

Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets

  • Aug 4, 2011

The Leuthold Group has always been a big proponent of sector rotation strategies. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section, Jun Zhu examines sector rotation in emerging markets and presents a series of ETFs that facilitate this strategy.