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Jun 07 2023

Revisiting The 1966 Forecast Failure

  • Jun 7, 2023

Developments over the last four months leave us even more skeptical that the November yield-curve inversion will join 1966 as a “false positive.” The number one reason being the subsequent shift in the yield curve itself.

Jul 10 2020

The Growth Style’s Twin Peaks

  • Jul 10, 2020

The strong market rebound in the second quarter lifted the relative return of Growth vs. Value to an all-time high by the end of June. Chart 1 reveals that the cumulative S&P 500 Growth / Value return spread hit a new record last month, surpassing the previous high reached at the end of the Tech bubble in June 2000. 

Jun 28 2019

Limbo Rock!

  • Jun 28, 2019

As global rates have taken a precipitous dive the last few months, it’s been hard not to hum “Limbo Rock.” And just like Chubby Checker, we’ve been asking our screens “How low can you go?” on a daily basis.

Jun 07 2019

Can Smart Analysts Generate Smart Beta?

  • Jun 7, 2019

We assess the effectiveness of using Wall Street analyst opinions as factors in a quantitative stock selection model. Watch for the full report coming next week.

Oct 05 2018

Narrow Performance Divergence Among EM May Not Last

  • Oct 5, 2018

We’ve previously noted the narrowing performance divergence between top- and bottom-performing Emerging Market (EM) countries in recent years.

Jul 07 2018

Trouble Is “Spreading”

  • Jul 7, 2018

Junk bond option-adjusted spreads (OAS) have remained relatively tight throughout the stock market pullback and recovery (Chart 1), assuring some bulls that the action is nothing more sinister than a “healthy and overdue” correction.

May 06 2016

An Alarming 2008 Analogy?

  • May 6, 2016

While breadth and leadership accompanying the upswing off February lows have been impressive, the most outstanding feature of this advance might be the confirmation provided by high yield bonds.

Jan 08 2014

2014 Time Cycle—Lower Your Expectations & Be Patient

  • Jan 8, 2014

It’s time to update our time cycle composites, and what they say for equities in the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan and long-term interest rates and credit spreads in the U.S.

Apr 05 2011

Believe It Or Not, New Highs

  • Apr 5, 2011

Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

Dec 05 2007

How Low Will The Fed Go? Bond Market May Be Offering Some Clues

  • Dec 5, 2007

In trying to assess how far the Fed may ultimately be forced to cut rates, the price action in short term Treasuries and historical yield relationships may offer some clues.

Oct 03 2007

Rising High Yield Spreads....Implications For An Agnostic Stock Market

  • Oct 3, 2007

Link between Junk bonds and stock market seems to be indicating that stock investors are ignoring factors pushing Junk bond yields higher.