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Stock Market

Jun 24 2022

If Inflation Has Peaked, Thank The Stock Market—Not The Fed

  • Jun 24, 2022

High inflation continues to dominate the headlines, but it is only one piece of the “weight of the evidence” that’s stacked against the stock market. Still, in ironic fashion, stock-market action itself suggests that inflation is set to peak.


Sep 08 2021

The Stock Market IS A “Fundamental”

  • Sep 8, 2021

The impact of U.S. stock-market “hegemony” extends far beyond currency markets. We believe the mania has progressed to the point where the stock market itself will shape the intermediate-term and even long-term fortunes of the U.S. economy more than it ever has before.

Dec 06 2019

Are Stocks And The Economy Disconnected?

  • Dec 6, 2019

The consensus among market pundits is that a U.S. recession will be averted and, as a consequence, domestic stocks remain the best game in town.

Jul 04 2019

Slowdown Or Recession? Confidence Is Key

  • Jul 4, 2019

The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.

Sep 15 2017

Stock Market Valuation Check

  • Sep 15, 2017

The Major Trend Index has bounced back into positive territory, and we expect an already-expensive U.S. market to make even higher highs later this year and into early 2018. But we are keeping an eye on the Intrinsic Value work to assess the potential losses that might occur when cyclical conditions eventually turn hostile—possibly in later 2018 or in 2019.

Feb 05 2016

Was That All There Was To It?

  • Feb 5, 2016

As quantitative investors, the disciplines of the numbers trump stories—even our own. But we’re struck that the stories depicted by our Major Trend Index and other market tools over the past two years are entirely logical and sequential. Unfortunately these stories rhyme with those of past market cycles.

Jul 08 2015

Navigating The First Rate Hike

  • Jul 8, 2015

Our current view is the lift-off will be December or later. Assuming inflation will pick up and the Fed hikes the rate by the end of 2015, stocks will perform relatively well, with international stocks a better bet than U.S. stocks.

Aug 07 2013

The Economy And Earnings

  • Aug 7, 2013

The YTD surge of 19% in the S&P 500 should ensure a stronger second half economy, and the big five-point jump in the latest Purchasing Managers Survey (ISM) might be the first evidence of this.

Feb 06 2013

Ringing In The New Year On A Wide Range Of Topics

  • Feb 6, 2013

Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?


Feb 05 2012

Up Market In January = Up Year??

  • Feb 5, 2012

As January goes, so goes the year. 2012 looks like it could well be an up year for stocks based on the January barometer. Market cycle chart from 1958 also says 2012 will be the “time to buy.”


Jan 05 2012

“Another” Year Of Gains?

  • Jan 5, 2012

U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.




Nov 05 2006

Iraq Withdrawal? “No-Win” Military Conflicts’ Impact On the Stock Market

  • Nov 5, 2006

Is market rallying in anticipation of conflict resolution in Iraq? Bush will be under increasing pressure to resolve things before the 2008 Presidential election. We look at the Korean conflict and Vietnam war for clues about how this possible resolution in Iraq may play out in stock market.

Nov 05 2005

Inflation Impact On The Stock Market

  • Nov 5, 2005

CPI expected to decline in 2006 and historically a decelerating CPI is a significant stock market positive, producing above average returns. Stage could be setting for a market rally in 2006 as inflation pressures wane.

Oct 05 2005

View From The North Country

  • Oct 5, 2005

Steve Leuthold lays out both the bullish and bearish stock market cases.

Jul 04 2005

View From The North Country

  • Jul 4, 2005

A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.

Jun 04 2005

View From The North Country

  • Jun 4, 2005

A special Kate Welling interview with Steve Leuthold. Discussion runs the gambit from Leuthold’s current outlook for the stock/bond markets, to groups he favors, to liquidity concerns, and hedge funds.

May 04 2005

U.S. Market Remains Relatively Overvalued Compared To Rest Of World

  • May 4, 2005

U.S. market ranks as fifth most expensive market based on comparisons to 44 countries from around the world.

Nov 03 2004

Keep In Front Of The Economic Curve

  • Nov 3, 2004

Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.

Jul 04 2004

View From The North Country

  • Jul 4, 2004

Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

Apr 05 2004

Bull Market: Part II

  • Apr 5, 2004

Bull Market Part II. Early 2004 correction seems over, rally appears to be developing

Feb 03 2004

View From The North Country

  • Feb 3, 2004

This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!

Jan 05 2004

View From The North Country

  • Jan 5, 2004

I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.

Jun 04 2003

Deflation: Not Likely, But, “What If?”

  • Jun 4, 2003

We think deflation fears are overblown, but, it isn’t necessarily bad for stock performance.

May 05 2003

Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?

  • May 5, 2003

It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.

Apr 03 2002

Rising Interest Rates Don't Always Mean A Falling Stock Market

  • Apr 3, 2002

A look at market performance over five different rising interest rate periods. Results are somewhat surprising.

Jan 04 2002

View From The North Country

  • Jan 4, 2002

Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

Apr 03 2001

The Economic Time Clock…..Recessions And The Stock Market

  • Apr 3, 2001

Recession means it is time to buy stocks. Knowing to buy stocks half way through a recession is easy. The hard part is, when the recession started, and when it might end.

Mar 05 2001

View From The North Country

  • Mar 5, 2001

Navigating safely through the current, turbulent market environment requires more experience, knowledge and training.

Feb 05 2001

A Weak Economy With A Strong Stock Market?

  • Feb 5, 2001

Earnings are declining and economy has slowed. Just why are we buying stocks?

Jan 04 2001

View From The North Country

  • Jan 4, 2001

Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

Mar 05 2000

View From The North Country

  • Mar 5, 2000

Workers’ stock market purchasing power at all time low. Also, a book out of the past, has an eerie ring to it.

Oct 05 1997

View From the North Country

  • Oct 5, 1997

Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.

Jul 05 1997

Putting It In Perspective...A Look At Equity Performance Over Last 15 Years

  • Jul 5, 1997

Last 15 years have been the best 15 year stock performance period ever recorded. Many of today's investors expect this to be the norm. Next 3, 5, 10, or 15 year time periods cannot be expected to rival current returns.

Nov 05 1996

The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships

  • Nov 5, 1996

In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.

Jan 05 1996

View from the North Country

  • Jan 5, 1996

Thermal pollution time…Steve Leuthold’s 1996 views (and 1995 reviews) on stocks, interest rates, economy, dollar, deficit, earnings, alternative investment areas and, yes, the Super Bowl.

Apr 05 1995

View From the North Country

  • Apr 5, 1995

Should we just own stocks and forget about asset allocation? After all stocks have been the best performing asset class over the last 70 years.

Nov 05 1994

View From the North Country

  • Nov 5, 1994

Economic growth and stock market performance don’t go hand in hand - the stock market looks ahead. Don’t be surprised by more wage irrflation. The AdvantHedge short selling program is updated and explained because readers have expressed a growing interest (maybe it’s the market).

Oct 05 1994

Polling the Pros in New York/Setember!

  • Oct 5, 1994

NY pros expect a trading range market over the next three months (no surprise). On a one year horizon, 53% of those polled were bullish to some degree (this was a surprise).

Feb 05 1994

A Strong Economy and a Weak Stock Market?

  • Feb 5, 1994

The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.

May 05 1993

The U.S. Stock Market: The Next Ten Years (Continued)

  • May 5, 1993

Does historical data suggest that a big performance decade is followed by a poor relative performance decade? Or, does a big performance decade beget an extended period of above average performance?