Some significant changes in the economy next year could impact sector leadership within the stock market. First, even if economic activity remains healthy, positive economic surprises seem poised to soon wane. Second, capital spending has recently strengthened and this could become more pronounced next year. Third, the U.S. unemployment rate seems destined to fall below 4% in 2018, aggravating inflation/overheat fears and forcing both the Fed and bond vigilantes to raise yields. Finally, we expect the U.S. dollar to resume declining again next year which should boost commodity prices including the price of crude oil.
Nov 07 2017