Skip to content

Recession Indicators

Oct 07 2020

Remember The Yield Curve?

  • Oct 7, 2020

It would be a mistake to ignore (as most pundits will) this important forecasting tool until the next time it threatens to invert. The level and direction of the yield curve provide helpful information throughout the entire economic cycle.

Dec 06 2019

Lagging From Behind?

  • Dec 6, 2019

As Yogi Berra might have quipped, it’s not just the leading indicators that are lagging… the lagging ones are, too.

Dec 06 2019

Are Stocks And The Economy Disconnected?

  • Dec 6, 2019

The consensus among market pundits is that a U.S. recession will be averted and, as a consequence, domestic stocks remain the best game in town.

Dec 06 2019

How Will It Be Remembered?

  • Dec 6, 2019

A way to gain perspective on the present is by trying to view it from the future. Ask yourself, “What are the signs of impending decline, now ignored by investors, that will one day be memorialized by the same investors as the most obvious in retrospect?”   

Jul 04 2019

Slowdown Or Recession? Confidence Is Key

  • Jul 4, 2019

The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.