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Inversion

Nov 15 2019

Questioning The Monetary Rebound

  • Nov 15, 2019

This year’s upswing in money-supply growth has been one of many factors that’s prevented our economic work from triggering a recession warning. Following a two-year decline, year-over-year growth in M2 bottomed near 3% late in 2018 and has trended upward all year, reaching 6.7% in the latest week (Chart 1).

 

Oct 05 2019

More Yield Curve Musings

  • Oct 5, 2019

The U.S. yield curve inversion has lasted long enough that even a few economic optimists now concede it will ultimately prove significant.

Oct 05 2019

More Trends We Don’t Find Friendly…

  • Oct 5, 2019

The yield curve’s ten-month moving average inverted in September, hence the yield curve inversion can no longer be dismissed as transitory; the Boom/Bust Indicator remains below its descending 10-month moving average, confirming economic weakness predicted by the yield curve; and, the “Present Situation” component of September’s Consumer Confidence survey slipped below its 10-month moving average for the third time in 2019.

Apr 05 2019

Inveighing Against The Inversion

  • Apr 5, 2019

Some recent headlines are word-for-word regurgitations of those published in response to the early-2006 yield curve inversion. In that case, the naysayers were temporarily correct, as both the U.S. economy and stock market pushed higher for another year and a half before rolling over.